Cognyte Software Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.11
| CGNT Stock | USD 7.95 0.13 1.66% |
Cognyte |
Cognyte Software Target Price Odds to finish below 5.11
The tendency of Cognyte Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.11 or more in 90 days |
| 7.95 | 90 days | 5.11 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cognyte Software to drop to $ 5.11 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cognyte Software probability density function shows the probability of Cognyte Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cognyte Software price to stay between $ 5.11 and its current price of $7.95 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cognyte Software will likely underperform. Additionally Cognyte Software has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cognyte Software Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cognyte Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cognyte Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cognyte Software Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cognyte Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cognyte Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cognyte Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cognyte Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.0001 |
Cognyte Software Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cognyte Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cognyte Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cognyte Software had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 313.4 M. Net Loss for the year was (15.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 192.75 M. | |
| Cognyte Software has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Cognyte Software Surges 9.0 percent Is This an Indication of Further Gains |
Cognyte Software Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cognyte Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cognyte Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cognyte Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 74.5 M |
Cognyte Software Technical Analysis
Cognyte Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cognyte Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cognyte Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cognyte Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cognyte Software Predictive Forecast Models
Cognyte Software's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cognyte Software's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cognyte Software's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cognyte Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cognyte Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cognyte Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cognyte Software had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 313.4 M. Net Loss for the year was (15.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 192.75 M. | |
| Cognyte Software has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Cognyte Software Surges 9.0 percent Is This an Indication of Further Gains |
Additional Tools for Cognyte Stock Analysis
When running Cognyte Software's price analysis, check to measure Cognyte Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cognyte Software is operating at the current time. Most of Cognyte Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cognyte Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cognyte Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cognyte Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.