Cognyte Software Stock Forward View
| CGNT Stock | USD 7.27 0.62 7.86% |
Cognyte Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Cognyte Software's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.24 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3333 | Wall Street Target Price 12 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0067 |
Using Cognyte Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cognyte Software from the perspective of Cognyte Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cognyte Software using Cognyte Software's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cognyte using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cognyte Software's stock price.
Cognyte Software Implied Volatility | 1.04 |
Cognyte Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cognyte Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cognyte Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cognyte Software stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cognyte Software's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cognyte Software on the next trading day is expected to be 6.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.05. Cognyte Software after-hype prediction price | USD 7.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cognyte Software to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cognyte contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cognyte Software will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.065% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Cognyte Software trading at USD 7.27, that is roughly USD 0.004726 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cognyte Software's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cognyte Software options at the current volatility level of 1.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Cognyte Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cognyte Software's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cognyte Software's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cognyte Software stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cognyte Software's open interest, investors have to compare it to Cognyte Software's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cognyte Software is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cognyte. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cognyte Software Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cognyte price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cognyte using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cognyte charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Cognyte Software's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1992-01-31 | Previous Quarter 84.5 M | Current Value 106.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 51.1 M |
Cognyte Software Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cognyte Software on the next trading day is expected to be 6.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cognyte Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cognyte Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cognyte Software Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cognyte Software | Cognyte Software Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cognyte Software Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cognyte Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cognyte Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.15 and 9.65, respectively. We have considered Cognyte Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cognyte Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cognyte Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4938 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.0475 |
Predictive Modules for Cognyte Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cognyte Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cognyte Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cognyte Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cognyte Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cognyte Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cognyte Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cognyte Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cognyte Software's historical news coverage. Cognyte Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.27 and 10.27, respectively. We have considered Cognyte Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cognyte Software is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cognyte Software is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cognyte Software Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cognyte Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cognyte Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cognyte Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.27 | 7.27 | 0.00 |
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Cognyte Software Hype Timeline
Cognyte Software is currently traded for 7.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Cognyte is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cognyte Software is about 4044.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.28. About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cognyte Software was currently reported as 2.79. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 105.36. Cognyte Software recorded a loss per share of 0.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of August 2010. The firm had 1:5 split on the 1st of April 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cognyte Software to cross-verify your projections.Cognyte Software Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cognyte Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cognyte Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Cognyte Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cognyte Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CINT | CiT Inc | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.93 | 0 | 5.51 | (5.14) | 12.99 | |
| ARQQ | Arqit Quantum | 0.71 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.11 | (10.64) | 22.37 | |
| BLZE | Backblaze | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.85 | (6.25) | 34.80 | |
| OWLS | OBOOK Holdings Class | 0.37 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.05 | (7.94) | 30.05 | |
| CCSI | Consensus Cloud Solutions | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.55 | (5.06) | 19.47 | |
| PRTH | Priority Technology Holdings | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.63 | (5.03) | 34.79 | |
| EXOD | Exodus Movement | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.42 | (10.97) | 36.02 | |
| IIIV | i3 Verticals | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.64 | (5.00) | 11.63 | |
| SPT | Sprout Social | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.85 | (6.55) | 15.22 | |
| DAVA | Endava | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.93 | (5.86) | 31.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cognyte Software
For every potential investor in Cognyte, whether a beginner or expert, Cognyte Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cognyte Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cognyte. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cognyte Software's price trends.Cognyte Software Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cognyte Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cognyte Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cognyte Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cognyte Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cognyte Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cognyte Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cognyte Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cognyte Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 70716.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.87) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.62) |
Cognyte Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cognyte Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cognyte Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cognyte stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Variance | 8.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cognyte Software
The number of cover stories for Cognyte Software depends on current market conditions and Cognyte Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cognyte Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cognyte Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cognyte Software Short Properties
Cognyte Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cognyte Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cognyte Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cognyte Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cognyte Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 112.7 M |
Additional Tools for Cognyte Stock Analysis
When running Cognyte Software's price analysis, check to measure Cognyte Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cognyte Software is operating at the current time. Most of Cognyte Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cognyte Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cognyte Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cognyte Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.