Carvana Co Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 244.47
| CVNA Stock | USD 256.00 4.80 1.84% |
Carvana |
Carvana Target Price Odds to finish below 244.47
The tendency of Carvana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 244.47 or more in 90 days |
| 256.00 | 90 days | 244.47 | about 91.95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carvana to drop to $ 244.47 or more in 90 days from now is about 91.95 (This Carvana Co probability density function shows the probability of Carvana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carvana price to stay between $ 244.47 and its current price of $256.0 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Carvana has a beta of 0.55 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Carvana average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Carvana Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Carvana Co has an alpha of 0.7246, implying that it can generate a 0.72 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Carvana Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carvana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carvana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carvana Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carvana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carvana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carvana Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carvana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 37.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Carvana Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carvana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carvana can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Carvana appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Bitcoins Surge Towards 100,000 Raises Concerns of Market Overheating |
Carvana Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carvana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carvana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carvana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 896 M |
Carvana Technical Analysis
Carvana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carvana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carvana Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carvana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carvana Predictive Forecast Models
Carvana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carvana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carvana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carvana
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carvana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carvana help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Carvana appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Bitcoins Surge Towards 100,000 Raises Concerns of Market Overheating |
Check out Carvana Backtesting, Carvana Valuation, Carvana Correlation, Carvana Hype Analysis, Carvana Volatility, Carvana History as well as Carvana Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share 2.49 | Revenue Per Share 106.047 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.318 | Return On Assets 0.0604 |
The market value of Carvana is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carvana is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.