Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.12
| EC Stock | USD 8.33 0.14 1.71% |
Ecopetrol |
Ecopetrol Target Price Odds to finish below 8.12
The tendency of Ecopetrol Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 8.12 or more in 90 days |
| 8.33 | 90 days | 8.12 | about 24.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ecopetrol to drop to $ 8.12 or more in 90 days from now is about 24.74 (This Ecopetrol SA ADR probability density function shows the probability of Ecopetrol Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ecopetrol SA ADR price to stay between $ 8.12 and its current price of $8.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.88 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Ecopetrol has a beta of 0.4 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ecopetrol average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ecopetrol SA ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ecopetrol SA ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ecopetrol Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ecopetrol
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ecopetrol SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ecopetrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ecopetrol Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ecopetrol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ecopetrol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ecopetrol SA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ecopetrol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.81 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Ecopetrol Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ecopetrol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ecopetrol SA ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ecopetrol SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ecopetrol SA ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ecopetrol presents its fourth report on climate change management following the recommendations ... |
Ecopetrol Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ecopetrol Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ecopetrol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ecopetrol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.2 T |
Ecopetrol Technical Analysis
Ecopetrol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ecopetrol Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ecopetrol SA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ecopetrol Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ecopetrol Predictive Forecast Models
Ecopetrol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ecopetrol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ecopetrol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ecopetrol SA ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ecopetrol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ecopetrol SA ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ecopetrol SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ecopetrol SA ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ecopetrol presents its fourth report on climate change management following the recommendations ... |
Check out Ecopetrol Backtesting, Ecopetrol Valuation, Ecopetrol Correlation, Ecopetrol Hype Analysis, Ecopetrol Volatility, Ecopetrol History as well as Ecopetrol Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ecopetrol. If investors know Ecopetrol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ecopetrol listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Earnings Share 1.89 | Revenue Per Share 32.4 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.079 |
The market value of Ecopetrol SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ecopetrol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ecopetrol's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ecopetrol's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ecopetrol's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ecopetrol's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ecopetrol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ecopetrol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ecopetrol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.