Evolution Petroleum Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.22
| EPM Stock | USD 5.62 0.01 0.18% |
Evolution |
Evolution Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish below 5.22
The tendency of Evolution Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.22 or more in 90 days |
| 5.62 | 90 days | 5.22 | about 14.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evolution Petroleum to drop to $ 5.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 14.0 (This Evolution Petroleum probability density function shows the probability of Evolution Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evolution Petroleum price to stay between $ 5.22 and its current price of $5.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.67 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Evolution Petroleum has a beta of 0.69 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Evolution Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Evolution Petroleum will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Evolution Petroleum has an alpha of 0.2717, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Evolution Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Evolution Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolution Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evolution Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evolution Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evolution Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evolution Petroleum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evolution Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Evolution Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evolution Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evolution Petroleum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evolution Petroleum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 2965 shares by Kelly Beatty of Evolution Petroleum at 6.19 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Evolution Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evolution Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evolution Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolution Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.4 M |
Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis
Evolution Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evolution Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evolution Petroleum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evolution Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evolution Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Evolution Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Evolution Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evolution Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evolution Petroleum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evolution Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evolution Petroleum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evolution Petroleum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 2965 shares by Kelly Beatty of Evolution Petroleum at 6.19 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Evolution Petroleum Backtesting, Evolution Petroleum Valuation, Evolution Petroleum Correlation, Evolution Petroleum Hype Analysis, Evolution Petroleum Volatility, Evolution Petroleum History as well as Evolution Petroleum Performance. To learn how to invest in Evolution Stock, please use our How to Invest in Evolution Petroleum guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolution Petroleum. If investors know Evolution will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolution Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 0.14 | Revenue Per Share 2.665 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
The market value of Evolution Petroleum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolution that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolution Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolution Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolution Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolution Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolution Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evolution Petroleum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolution Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.