Evolution Petroleum Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EPM Stock | USD 3.94 0.04 1.03% |
Evolution Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of relative strength index of Evolution Petroleum's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Evolution Petroleum, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Evolution Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolution Petroleum from the perspective of Evolution Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evolution Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 3.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.09. Evolution Petroleum after-hype prediction price | USD 3.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Evolution | Build AI portfolio with Evolution Stock |
Evolution Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evolution price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolution using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolution charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evolution Petroleum Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evolution Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 3.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolution Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolution Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evolution Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolution Petroleum | Evolution Petroleum Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evolution Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evolution Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evolution Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.57 and 6.31, respectively. We have considered Evolution Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolution Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolution Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4615 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0682 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0181 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.09 |
Predictive Modules for Evolution Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolution Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evolution Petroleum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evolution Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolution Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolution Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evolution Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evolution Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolution Petroleum's historical news coverage. Evolution Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.57 and 6.31, respectively. We have considered Evolution Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evolution Petroleum is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolution Petroleum is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evolution Petroleum Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evolution Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolution Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolution Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.94 | 3.94 | 0.00 |
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Evolution Petroleum Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Evolution Petroleum is traded for 3.94. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Evolution is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Evolution Petroleum is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.94. About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.97. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Evolution Petroleum recorded a loss per share of 0.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 1:40 split on the 5th of February 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolution Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.Evolution Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evolution Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolution Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Evolution Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolution Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KGEI | Kolibri Global Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.91 | (4.30) | 11.55 | |
| INR | Infinity Natural Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | 0.15 | 5.33 | (3.40) | 19.95 | |
| ANNA | AleAnna Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.00 | (4.88) | 20.01 | |
| HUSA | HUSA Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 7.08 | (20.83) | 35.49 | |
| NUAI | New Era Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.26 | 0.07 | 19.87 | (13.15) | 56.80 | |
| GTE | Gran Tierra Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.87 | 0.17 | 8.24 | (3.72) | 23.83 | |
| BOOM | Dmc Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.10 | 0.04 | 6.18 | (4.12) | 18.62 | |
| AMPY | Amplify Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.08 | 0.04 | 5.27 | (3.74) | 17.71 | |
| TYGO | Tigo Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.79 | 0.11 | 17.49 | (8.95) | 46.00 | |
| SAFX | XCF Global Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 13.33 | (16.67) | 150.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evolution Petroleum
For every potential investor in Evolution, whether a beginner or expert, Evolution Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evolution Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evolution. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evolution Petroleum's price trends.Evolution Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evolution Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evolution Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evolution Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolution Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evolution Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evolution Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evolution Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evolution Petroleum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evolution Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evolution Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evolution Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evolution stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evolution Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Evolution Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Evolution Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evolution Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evolution Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evolution Petroleum Short Properties
Evolution Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evolution Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evolution Petroleum often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evolution Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolution Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolution Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Evolution Stock, please use our How to Invest in Evolution Petroleum guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Evolution diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolution Petroleum. Projected growth potential of Evolution fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Evolution Petroleum data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Evolution Petroleum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolution that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolution Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolution Petroleum's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Evolution Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolution Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Evolution Petroleum's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Evolution Petroleum should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Evolution Petroleum's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.