Farmer Bros Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.03
| FARM Stock | USD 2.23 0.13 6.19% |
Farmer |
Farmer Bros Target Price Odds to finish below 0.03
The tendency of Farmer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days |
| 2.23 | 90 days | 0.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Farmer Bros to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Farmer Bros Co probability density function shows the probability of Farmer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Farmer Bros price to stay between $ 0.03 and its current price of $2.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.55 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.25 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Farmer Bros will likely underperform. Additionally Farmer Bros Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Farmer Bros Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Farmer Bros
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmer Bros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Farmer Bros Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Farmer Bros is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Farmer Bros' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Farmer Bros Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Farmer Bros within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Farmer Bros Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Farmer Bros for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Farmer Bros can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Farmer Bros generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Farmer Bros has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 341.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.61 M. | |
| Farmer Bros Co currently holds about 10.14 M in cash with (14.15 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.54. | |
| Farmer Bros has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from cnn.com: The Avett Brothers on how a shipwreck inspired an album, and then a Broadway musical |
Farmer Bros Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Farmer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Farmer Bros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Farmer Bros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.8 M |
Farmer Bros Technical Analysis
Farmer Bros' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Farmer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Farmer Bros Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Farmer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Farmer Bros Predictive Forecast Models
Farmer Bros' time-series forecasting models is one of many Farmer Bros' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Farmer Bros' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Farmer Bros
Checking the ongoing alerts about Farmer Bros for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Farmer Bros help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Farmer Bros generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Farmer Bros has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 341.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.61 M. | |
| Farmer Bros Co currently holds about 10.14 M in cash with (14.15 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.54. | |
| Farmer Bros has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from cnn.com: The Avett Brothers on how a shipwreck inspired an album, and then a Broadway musical |
Check out Farmer Bros Backtesting, Farmer Bros Valuation, Farmer Bros Correlation, Farmer Bros Hype Analysis, Farmer Bros Volatility, Farmer Bros History as well as Farmer Bros Performance. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmer Bros. If investors know Farmer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmer Bros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.37) | Revenue Per Share 16.318 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.039 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.19) |
The market value of Farmer Bros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmer Bros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmer Bros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmer Bros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmer Bros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmer Bros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmer Bros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmer Bros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.