Farmer Bros Co Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FARM Stock | USD 2.23 0.13 6.19% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Farmer Bros Co is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Farmer Bros' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Farmer Bros Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Farmer and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Farmer Bros Co. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
Farmer |
Execute Farmer Bros Buy or Sell Advice
The Farmer recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Farmer Bros Co. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Farmer Bros Co or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Farmer Bros' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Farmer Bros Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Farmer Bros generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Farmer Bros has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 341.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.61 M. | |
| Farmer Bros Co currently holds about 10.14 M in cash with (14.15 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.54. | |
| Farmer Bros has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from cnn.com: The Avett Brothers on how a shipwreck inspired an album, and then a Broadway musical |
Farmer Bros Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Farmer Bros' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Farmer Bros' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Farmer Bros daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Farmer Bros Co price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Farmer Bros returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Farmer Bros.
| Mean Return | -0.35 | Value At Risk | -5.19 | Potential Upside | 4.66 | Standard Deviation | 3.95 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Farmer Bros historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Farmer Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as Farmer Bros, soars without any apparent reason. This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmer Bros Co back and forth among themselves. Companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in this term and can influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 209.3 K | Tocqueville Asset Management L.p. | 2024-09-30 | 203 K | Smh Capital Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 154.3 K | State Street Corp | 2024-06-30 | 91.8 K | Bridgeway Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 75 K | Advisory Services Network, Llc | 2024-06-30 | 74.3 K | Hodges Capital Management Inc | 2024-06-30 | 61 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 52.8 K | Ridgewood Investments Llc | 2024-09-30 | 42.5 K | 22nw, Lp | 2024-06-30 | 2 M | Penn Capital Management Company Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1 M |
Farmer Bros Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 19.5M | (9.4M) | (22.8M) | 19.8M | (8.0M) | (7.6M) | |
| Change In Cash | 53.0M | (49.6M) | (444K) | (4.6M) | 586K | 615.3K | |
| Free Cash Flow | (16.1M) | (16.6M) | (26.6M) | (21.9M) | (28.0M) | (26.6M) | |
| Depreciation | 29.9M | 27.6M | 23.8M | 22.2M | 11.6M | 16.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 22.2M | (24.6M) | (24.9M) | 28.6M | (17.2M) | (16.4M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 17.6M | 15.1M | 15.2M | 15.0M | 13.8M | 19.2M | |
| Net Income | (37.1M) | (41.7M) | (15.7M) | (79.2M) | (3.9M) | (3.7M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 60.0M | 10.4M | 10.0M | 5.4M | 6.0M | 5.7M | |
| Change Receivables | 2.8M | 12.9M | 1.4M | (6.3M) | (7.2M) | (6.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 29.5M | (31.1M) | 17.1M | (85.8M) | (77.2M) | (73.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 26.2M | (6.6M) | 22.4M | 36.2M | 41.6M | 43.7M | |
| Investments | 21.9M | (10.7M) | (6.0M) | 88.4M | 14.7M | 15.5M |
Farmer Bros Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Farmer Bros or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Farmer Bros' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Farmer stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Farmer Bros Volatility Alert
Farmer Bros Co exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 1.23 and kurtosis of 6.4. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Farmer Bros' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Farmer Bros' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Farmer Bros Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Farmer Bros' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Farmer Bros' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Farmer Bros and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Farmer Bros or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Farmer Bros' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmer Bros by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Farmer Bros to competition |
| Fundamentals | Farmer Bros | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.19 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.049 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.02) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.01) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 99.13 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.27 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 18.50 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 41.95 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 87.5 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 22.93 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.09 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.13 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 341.09 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 114.61 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 15.56 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (3.88 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 10.14 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.54 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 59.41 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.30 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.88 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 1.92 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (14.15 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.22 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.37) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.63 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 5.25 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.78 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 44.66 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 185.21 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (30.35 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 25.95 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Matthew Coffman of 40000 shares of Farmer Bros subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Farmer Bros Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Farmer . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 52773.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4063 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.085 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.13 |
About Farmer Bros Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Farmer Bros Co? Buying financial instruments such as Farmer Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Farmer Bros in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Farmer Bros Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmer Bros. If investors know Farmer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmer Bros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.37) | Revenue Per Share 16.318 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.039 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.19) |
The market value of Farmer Bros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmer Bros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmer Bros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmer Bros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmer Bros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmer Bros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmer Bros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmer Bros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.