Ambac Financial (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.4
| FGPN Stock | EUR 11.60 0.10 0.85% |
Ambac |
Ambac Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 11.4
The tendency of Ambac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 11.40 in 90 days |
| 11.60 | 90 days | 11.40 | about 28.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambac Financial to stay above € 11.40 in 90 days from now is about 28.63 (This Ambac Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Ambac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ambac Financial Group price to stay between € 11.40 and its current price of €11.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ambac Financial has a beta of 0.54. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Ambac Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ambac Financial Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ambac Financial Group has an alpha of 0.1745, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ambac Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ambac Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambac Financial Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ambac Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambac Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambac Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambac Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambac Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Ambac Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambac Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambac Financial Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ambac Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ambac Financial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Ambac Financial Group has accumulated 6.45 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 633.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Ambac Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ambac Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ambac Financial Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ambac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 250 M. Net Loss for the year was (17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 310 M. | |
| Ambac Financial Group has accumulated about 1000 M in cash with (131 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 22.04, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Over 79.0% of Ambac Financial shares are owned by institutional investors |
Ambac Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambac Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambac Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.3 M |
Ambac Financial Technical Analysis
Ambac Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ambac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ambac Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ambac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ambac Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Ambac Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ambac Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ambac Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ambac Financial Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambac Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambac Financial Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ambac Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ambac Financial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Ambac Financial Group has accumulated 6.45 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 633.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Ambac Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ambac Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ambac Financial Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ambac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 250 M. Net Loss for the year was (17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 310 M. | |
| Ambac Financial Group has accumulated about 1000 M in cash with (131 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 22.04, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Over 79.0% of Ambac Financial shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ambac Stock
When determining whether Ambac Financial Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ambac Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ambac Financial Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ambac Financial Group Stock:Check out Ambac Financial Backtesting, Ambac Financial Valuation, Ambac Financial Correlation, Ambac Financial Hype Analysis, Ambac Financial Volatility, Ambac Financial History as well as Ambac Financial Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.