1st Federal Savings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 10.00
| FSGB Stock | USD 10.00 0.40 4.17% |
1st |
1st Federal Target Price Odds to finish over 10.00
The tendency of 1st Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 10.00 | 90 days | 10.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 1st Federal to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This 1st Federal Savings probability density function shows the probability of 1st Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days 1st Federal has a beta of 0.15. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, 1st Federal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding 1st Federal Savings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally 1st Federal Savings has an alpha of 0.0502, implying that it can generate a 0.0502 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 1st Federal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 1st Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Federal Savings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.1st Federal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 1st Federal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 1st Federal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold 1st Federal Savings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 1st Federal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
1st Federal Technical Analysis
1st Federal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 1st Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of 1st Federal Savings. In general, you should focus on analyzing 1st Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
1st Federal Predictive Forecast Models
1st Federal's time-series forecasting models is one of many 1st Federal's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 1st Federal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 1st Federal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 1st Federal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 1st Federal options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 1st Pink Sheet
1st Federal financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1st Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1st with respect to the benefits of owning 1st Federal security.