Greene County Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.22
| GCBC Stock | USD 30.94 0.50 1.59% |
Greene |
Greene County Target Price Odds to finish below 31.22
The tendency of Greene Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 31.22 after 90 days |
| 30.94 | 90 days | 31.22 | about 60.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Greene County to stay under $ 31.22 after 90 days from now is about 60.68 (This Greene County Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Greene Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Greene County Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 30.94 and $ 31.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.69 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.21 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Greene County will likely underperform. Additionally Greene County Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Greene County Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Greene County
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greene County Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Greene County Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Greene County is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Greene County's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Greene County Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Greene County within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Greene County Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Greene County for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Greene County Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Greene County generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Greene County has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Greene County has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 59.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Greene County Bancorp Has Announced A Dividend Of 0.09 |
Greene County Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Greene Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Greene County's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greene County's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 190.4 M |
Greene County Technical Analysis
Greene County's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Greene Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Greene County Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Greene Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Greene County Predictive Forecast Models
Greene County's time-series forecasting models is one of many Greene County's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Greene County's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Greene County Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Greene County for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Greene County Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Greene County generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Greene County has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Greene County has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 59.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Greene County Bancorp Has Announced A Dividend Of 0.09 |
Check out Greene County Backtesting, Greene County Valuation, Greene County Correlation, Greene County Hype Analysis, Greene County Volatility, Greene County History as well as Greene County Performance. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Greene County. If investors know Greene will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Greene County listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 0.34 | Earnings Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share 3.763 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Greene County Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Greene that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Greene County's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Greene County's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Greene County's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Greene County's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Greene County's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Greene County is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Greene County's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.