Guess Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.80
| GES Stock | USD 16.63 0.43 2.65% |
Guess |
Guess Target Price Odds to finish below 12.80
The tendency of Guess Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.80 or more in 90 days |
| 16.63 | 90 days | 12.80 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guess to drop to $ 12.80 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Guess Inc probability density function shows the probability of Guess Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guess Inc price to stay between $ 12.80 and its current price of $16.63 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.33 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.26 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Guess will likely underperform. Additionally Guess Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Guess Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guess
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guess Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guess' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guess Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guess is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guess' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guess Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guess within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Guess Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guess for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guess Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Guess Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 27th of September 2024 Guess paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Guess, Inc. to Webcast Conference Call on Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results |
Guess Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guess Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guess' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guess' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 360.3 M |
Guess Technical Analysis
Guess' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guess Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guess Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guess Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guess Predictive Forecast Models
Guess' time-series forecasting models is one of many Guess' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guess' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guess Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guess for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guess Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Guess Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 27th of September 2024 Guess paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Guess, Inc. to Webcast Conference Call on Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results |
Additional Tools for Guess Stock Analysis
When running Guess' price analysis, check to measure Guess' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guess is operating at the current time. Most of Guess' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guess' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guess' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guess to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.