Guess Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| GES Stock | USD 0.01 16.80 99.96% |
Guess Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Guess' share price is approaching 32. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Guess, making its price go up or down. Momentum 32
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Guess hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Guess Inc from the perspective of Guess response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Guess Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.86. Guess after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0062 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guess to cross-verify your projections. Guess Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Guess price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Guess using various technical indicators. When you analyze Guess charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Guess Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Guess Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 13.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guess Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guess' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Guess Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Guess | Guess Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Guess Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Guess' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guess' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.00006 and 179.61, respectively. We have considered Guess' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guess stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guess stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.016 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4269 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0316 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 118.8466 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.864 |
Predictive Modules for Guess
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guess Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guess' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guess After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Guess at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Guess or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Guess, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Guess Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Guess' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Guess' historical news coverage. Guess' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 50.31, respectively. We have considered Guess' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Guess is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Guess Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Guess Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Guess is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Guess backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Guess, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
29.03 | 179.61 | 0.00 | 8.85 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.01 | 0.01 | 3.33 |
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Guess Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Guess Inc is traded for 0.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -8.85. Guess is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.0062 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 3.33%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 29.03%. The volatility of related hype on Guess is about 58888.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -8.84. Guess Inc has 1.42 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.54, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guess to cross-verify your projections.Guess Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Guess' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Guess' future price movements. Getting to know how Guess' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Guess may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WOOF | Pet Acquisition LLC | (2.72) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.38 | (5.05) | 20.36 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.52) | 0.22 | (0.18) | 0.50 | |
| CRI | Carters | (0.36) | 10 per month | 2.43 | 0.05 | 5.04 | (4.43) | 14.38 | |
| HEPS | D MARKET Electronic Services | 1.23 | 3 per month | 4.92 | 0.04 | 3.23 | (4.94) | 61.70 | |
| AMWD | American Woodmark | 2.55 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.26 | (3.82) | 15.81 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | (0.26) | 8 per month | 6.69 | (0) | 16.00 | (10.24) | 48.05 | |
| ACEL | Accel Entertainment | 0.40 | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 2.73 | (1.96) | 7.30 | |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | (3.83) | 8 per month | 2.57 | 0.03 | 9.13 | (5.06) | 17.70 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.27 | 4.45 | (1.98) | 11.45 | |
| TDUP | ThredUp | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 5.77 | (7.53) | 21.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Guess
For every potential investor in Guess, whether a beginner or expert, Guess' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guess Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guess. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guess' price trends.Guess Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guess stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guess could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guess by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Guess Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guess stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guess shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guess stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guess Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 4.0E-4 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.006 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.006 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (16.80) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.61 |
Guess Risk Indicators
The analysis of Guess' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guess' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guess stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 62.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 17.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 179.61 | |||
| Variance | 32257.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 768.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 309.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (71.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Guess
The number of cover stories for Guess depends on current market conditions and Guess' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Guess is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Guess' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Guess Short Properties
Guess' future price predictability will typically decrease when Guess' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Guess Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Guess' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guess' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 187.7 M |
Additional Tools for Guess Stock Analysis
When running Guess' price analysis, check to measure Guess' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guess is operating at the current time. Most of Guess' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guess' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guess' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guess to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.