Grocery Outlet Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.11
| GO Stock | USD 19.54 0.89 4.77% |
Grocery |
Grocery Outlet Target Price Odds to finish below 16.11
The tendency of Grocery Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.11 or more in 90 days |
| 19.54 | 90 days | 16.11 | about 22.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grocery Outlet to drop to $ 16.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.46 (This Grocery Outlet Holding probability density function shows the probability of Grocery Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grocery Outlet Holding price to stay between $ 16.11 and its current price of $19.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.53 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.99 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Grocery Outlet will likely underperform. Additionally Grocery Outlet Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grocery Outlet Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grocery Outlet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grocery Outlet Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grocery Outlet Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grocery Outlet is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grocery Outlet's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grocery Outlet Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grocery Outlet within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.99 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Grocery Outlet Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grocery Outlet for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grocery Outlet Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grocery Outlet had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Latest Update Top Way to Spoof Pokemon GO in 3 Steps |
Grocery Outlet Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grocery Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grocery Outlet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grocery Outlet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115 M |
Grocery Outlet Technical Analysis
Grocery Outlet's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grocery Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grocery Outlet Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grocery Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grocery Outlet Predictive Forecast Models
Grocery Outlet's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grocery Outlet's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grocery Outlet's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grocery Outlet Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grocery Outlet for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grocery Outlet Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grocery Outlet had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Latest Update Top Way to Spoof Pokemon GO in 3 Steps |
Check out Grocery Outlet Backtesting, Grocery Outlet Valuation, Grocery Outlet Correlation, Grocery Outlet Hype Analysis, Grocery Outlet Volatility, Grocery Outlet History as well as Grocery Outlet Performance. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. If investors know Grocery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grocery Outlet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Earnings Share 0.51 | Revenue Per Share 42.988 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 | Return On Assets 0.0194 |
The market value of Grocery Outlet Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grocery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grocery Outlet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grocery Outlet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grocery Outlet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grocery Outlet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grocery Outlet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grocery Outlet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.