Grocery Outlet Stock Forward View
| GO Stock | USD 9.53 0.09 0.95% |
Grocery Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Grocery Outlet's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Grocery Outlet's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Grocery Outlet fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of RSI of Grocery Outlet's share price is approaching 37. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Grocery Outlet, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.236 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7826 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8278 | Wall Street Target Price 14.1154 |
Using Grocery Outlet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grocery Outlet Holding from the perspective of Grocery Outlet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grocery Outlet using Grocery Outlet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grocery using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grocery Outlet's stock price.
Grocery Outlet Short Interest
An investor who is long Grocery Outlet may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Grocery Outlet and may potentially protect profits, hedge Grocery Outlet with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.813 | Short Percent 0.3519 | Short Ratio 9.1 | Shares Short Prior Month 24.3 M | 50 Day MA 10.2483 |
Grocery Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grocery Outlet Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65.Grocery Outlet Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Grocery Outlet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Grocery. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Grocery can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Grocery Outlet Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Grocery Outlet's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Grocery Outlet.
Grocery Outlet Implied Volatility | 0.96 |
Grocery Outlet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grocery Outlet Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grocery Outlet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grocery Outlet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grocery Outlet's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grocery Outlet Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65. Grocery Outlet after-hype prediction price | USD 9.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grocery Outlet to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grocery contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grocery Outlet Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.06% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Grocery Outlet trading at USD 9.53, that is roughly USD 0.005718 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grocery Outlet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grocery Outlet Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Grocery Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Grocery Outlet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Grocery Outlet's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Grocery Outlet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Grocery Outlet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Grocery Outlet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Grocery Outlet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Grocery. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Grocery Outlet Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grocery price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grocery using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grocery charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grocery Outlet Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Grocery Outlet's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 55.2 M | Current Value 52.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 44.8 M |
Grocery Outlet Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grocery Outlet Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grocery Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grocery Outlet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grocery Outlet Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grocery Outlet | Grocery Outlet Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Grocery Outlet Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grocery Outlet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grocery Outlet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.63 and 11.59, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grocery Outlet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grocery Outlet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4062 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2074 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.6514 |
Predictive Modules for Grocery Outlet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grocery Outlet Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grocery Outlet After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grocery Outlet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grocery Outlet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grocery Outlet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grocery Outlet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grocery Outlet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grocery Outlet's historical news coverage. Grocery Outlet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.39 and 12.35, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grocery Outlet is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grocery Outlet Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grocery Outlet Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grocery Outlet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grocery Outlet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grocery Outlet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 2.48 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.53 | 9.87 | 3.57 |
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Grocery Outlet Hype Timeline
As of February 2, 2026 Grocery Outlet Holding is listed for 9.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.37. Grocery is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 3.57%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.61%. The volatility of related hype on Grocery Outlet is about 406.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.16. Grocery Outlet Holding reports 1.66 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.31, which is normal for its line of buisiness. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grocery Outlet to cross-verify your projections.Grocery Outlet Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grocery Outlet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grocery Outlet's future price movements. Getting to know how Grocery Outlet's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grocery Outlet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | (1.67) | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.02 | 2.74 | (2.41) | 7.85 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | (0.41) | 6 per month | 1.12 | 0.07 | 2.23 | (1.65) | 7.02 | |
| VITL | Vital Farms | (0.24) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.50 | (5.75) | 22.88 | |
| COUR | Coursera | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.66 | (4.25) | 14.34 | |
| NWL | Newell Rubbermaid | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.38 | (3.67) | 28.08 | |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.75 | 0.09 | 3.51 | (2.88) | 13.62 | |
| AFYA | Afya | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 2.30 | (2.99) | 6.95 | |
| PXED | Phoenix Education Partners | (3.79) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.27 | (6.69) | 19.88 | |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.05 | 2.76 | (1.65) | 8.05 | |
| UVV | Universal | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.92 | 0.09 | 1.65 | (1.45) | 8.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grocery Outlet
For every potential investor in Grocery, whether a beginner or expert, Grocery Outlet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grocery Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grocery. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grocery Outlet's price trends.Grocery Outlet Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grocery Outlet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grocery Outlet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grocery Outlet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grocery Outlet Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grocery Outlet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grocery Outlet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grocery Outlet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grocery Outlet Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grocery Outlet Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grocery Outlet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grocery Outlet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grocery stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grocery Outlet
The number of cover stories for Grocery Outlet depends on current market conditions and Grocery Outlet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grocery Outlet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grocery Outlet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Grocery Outlet Short Properties
Grocery Outlet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grocery Outlet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grocery Outlet Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grocery Outlet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grocery Outlet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 62.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grocery Outlet to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Will Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector continue expanding? Could Grocery diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. Market participants price Grocery higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Grocery Outlet data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share (0.04) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Grocery Outlet Holding using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Grocery Outlet's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Grocery Outlet's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grocery Outlet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Grocery Outlet's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.