Geopark Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 8.95
| GPRK Stock | USD 10.87 0.35 3.12% |
Closest to current price GeoPark long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
GeoPark |
GeoPark Target Price Odds to finish over 8.95
The tendency of GeoPark Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 8.95 in 90 days |
| 10.87 | 90 days | 8.95 | about 12.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GeoPark to stay above $ 8.95 in 90 days from now is about 12.61 (This GeoPark probability density function shows the probability of GeoPark Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GeoPark price to stay between $ 8.95 and its current price of $10.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days GeoPark has a beta of 0.65. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, GeoPark average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GeoPark will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally GeoPark has an alpha of 0.3397, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GeoPark Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GeoPark
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GeoPark. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GeoPark Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GeoPark is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GeoPark's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GeoPark, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GeoPark within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
GeoPark Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GeoPark for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GeoPark can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GeoPark appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GeoPark is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| GeoPark currently holds 533.28 M in liabilities. GeoPark has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about GeoPark's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| GeoPark has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: GeoPark Ltd Shares Up 5 percent on Dec 3 |
GeoPark Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GeoPark Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GeoPark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GeoPark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 133 M |
GeoPark Technical Analysis
GeoPark's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GeoPark Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GeoPark. In general, you should focus on analyzing GeoPark Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GeoPark Predictive Forecast Models
GeoPark's time-series forecasting models is one of many GeoPark's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GeoPark's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GeoPark
Checking the ongoing alerts about GeoPark for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GeoPark help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GeoPark appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GeoPark is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| GeoPark currently holds 533.28 M in liabilities. GeoPark has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about GeoPark's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| GeoPark has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: GeoPark Ltd Shares Up 5 percent on Dec 3 |
Check out GeoPark Backtesting, GeoPark Valuation, GeoPark Correlation, GeoPark Hype Analysis, GeoPark Volatility, GeoPark History as well as GeoPark Performance. For more information on how to buy GeoPark Stock please use our How to buy in GeoPark Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GeoPark. If investors know GeoPark will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GeoPark listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | Dividend Share 0.577 | Earnings Share 1.97 | Revenue Per Share 13.374 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of GeoPark is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GeoPark that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GeoPark's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GeoPark's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GeoPark's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GeoPark's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GeoPark's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GeoPark is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GeoPark's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.