Granite Construction Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 78.34
| GVA Stock | USD 99.29 1.08 1.10% |
Granite |
Granite Construction Target Price Odds to finish below 78.34
The tendency of Granite Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 78.34 or more in 90 days |
| 99.29 | 90 days | 78.34 | about 30.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Granite Construction to drop to $ 78.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 30.81 (This Granite Construction Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Granite Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Granite Construction price to stay between $ 78.34 and its current price of $99.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.86 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Granite Construction will likely underperform. Additionally Granite Construction Incorporated has an alpha of 0.3577, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Granite Construction Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Granite Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granite Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Granite Construction is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Granite Construction's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Granite Construction Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Granite Construction within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.27 |
Granite Construction Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Granite Construction for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Granite Construction can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Granite Construction paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights EMCOR, MasTec, Granite Construction, Primoris and Great Lakes Dredge Dock |
Granite Construction Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Granite Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 453.5 M |
Granite Construction Technical Analysis
Granite Construction's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Granite Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Granite Construction Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Granite Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Granite Construction Predictive Forecast Models
Granite Construction's time-series forecasting models is one of many Granite Construction's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Granite Construction's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Granite Construction
Checking the ongoing alerts about Granite Construction for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Granite Construction help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Granite Construction paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights EMCOR, MasTec, Granite Construction, Primoris and Great Lakes Dredge Dock |
Check out Granite Construction Backtesting, Granite Construction Valuation, Granite Construction Correlation, Granite Construction Hype Analysis, Granite Construction Volatility, Granite Construction History as well as Granite Construction Performance. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Granite Construction. If investors know Granite will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Granite Construction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.38 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 2.36 | Revenue Per Share 90.257 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.142 |
The market value of Granite Construction is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Granite that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Granite Construction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Granite Construction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Granite Construction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Granite Construction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Granite Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Granite Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Granite Construction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.