Lumentum Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 578.78
| LITE Stock | USD 578.78 4.68 0.80% |
Closest to current price Lumentum long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Lumentum Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 578.78
The tendency of Lumentum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 578.78 | 90 days | 578.78 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumentum Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lumentum Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Lumentum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Lumentum Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumentum Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumentum Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumentum Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumentum Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 82.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Lumentum Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lumentum Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lumentum Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lumentum Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: A Look At Lumentum Valuation After Earnings Beat And Strong Growth Guidance |
Lumentum Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lumentum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lumentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 877.1 M |
Lumentum Holdings Technical Analysis
Lumentum Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumentum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumentum Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumentum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lumentum Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Lumentum Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumentum Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumentum Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lumentum Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lumentum Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lumentum Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lumentum Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: A Look At Lumentum Valuation After Earnings Beat And Strong Growth Guidance |
Check out Lumentum Holdings Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Valuation, Lumentum Holdings Correlation, Lumentum Holdings Hype Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Volatility, Lumentum Holdings Price History as well as Lumentum Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Will Communications Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Lumentum diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. Expected growth trajectory for Lumentum significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lumentum Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share 3.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.655 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Lumentum Holdings' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lumentum Holdings represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Lumentum Holdings' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.