Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LITE Stock | USD 87.20 1.89 2.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 84.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.77. Lumentum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lumentum Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Lumentum Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lumentum Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Lumentum |
Lumentum Holdings Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Lumentum Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-06-30 | Previous Quarter 436.7 M | Current Value 489.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 320.1 M |
Lumentum Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 84.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24, mean absolute percentage error of 9.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lumentum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lumentum Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lumentum Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lumentum Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lumentum Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.62 and 87.41, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lumentum Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lumentum Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2421 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0319 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 136.7662 |
Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lumentum Holdings
For every potential investor in Lumentum, whether a beginner or expert, Lumentum Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lumentum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lumentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lumentum Holdings' price trends.Lumentum Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lumentum Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lumentum Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lumentum Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lumentum Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lumentum Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lumentum Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Lumentum Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lumentum Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lumentum Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lumentum Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lumentum Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 153491.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 89.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 88.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.83) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.89) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.08 |
Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lumentum Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lumentum Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lumentum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Variance | 12.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Lumentum Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Lumentum Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Lumentum Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Lumentum Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. If investors know Lumentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share (8.31) | Revenue Per Share 20.362 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 | Return On Assets (0.05) |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.