Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LITE Stock | USD 354.49 7.95 2.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 357.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 944.61. Lumentum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lumentum Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Lumentum Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lumentum Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Lumentum Holdings' share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lumentum Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1623 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8025 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.8514 | Wall Street Target Price 320.7619 |
Using Lumentum Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lumentum Holdings from the perspective of Lumentum Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lumentum Holdings using Lumentum Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lumentum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lumentum Holdings' stock price.
Lumentum Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lumentum Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lumentum. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lumentum Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 164.8827 | Short Percent 0.1854 | Short Ratio 3.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.6 M | 50 Day MA 323.4184 |
Lumentum Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lumentum Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lumentum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lumentum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lumentum Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Lumentum Holdings Implied Volatility | 1.41 |
Lumentum Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lumentum Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lumentum Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lumentum Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lumentum Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 357.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 944.61. Lumentum Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 354.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lumentum contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lumentum Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0881% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lumentum Holdings trading at USD 354.49, that is roughly USD 0.31 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lumentum Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lumentum Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lumentum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lumentum Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lumentum Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lumentum Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lumentum Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lumentum Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lumentum Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lumentum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lumentum Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lumentum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lumentum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lumentum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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Lumentum Holdings Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Lumentum Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-06-30 | Previous Quarter 520.7 M | Current Value 772.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 311.5 M |
Lumentum Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 357.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.24, mean absolute percentage error of 332.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 944.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lumentum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lumentum Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lumentum Holdings | Lumentum Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lumentum Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lumentum Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lumentum Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 350.55 and 364.04, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lumentum Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lumentum Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.7564 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.2356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0512 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 944.6056 |
Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumentum Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lumentum Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lumentum Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lumentum Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lumentum Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lumentum Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lumentum Holdings' historical news coverage. Lumentum Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 347.74 and 361.24, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lumentum Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lumentum Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lumentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lumentum Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lumentum Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lumentum Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.23 | 6.75 | 1.39 | 0.28 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
354.49 | 354.49 | 0.00 |
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Lumentum Holdings Hype Timeline
Lumentum Holdings is now traded for 354.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.28. Lumentum is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lumentum Holdings is about 2934.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 354.77. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97. Lumentum Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Lumentum Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lumentum Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lumentum Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Lumentum Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lumentum Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | 1.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.01 | (4.13) | 15.40 | |
| FN | Fabrinet | 1.13 | 21 per month | 4.14 | 0.05 | 5.63 | (5.86) | 17.48 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | (3.87) | 9 per month | 2.83 | 0.11 | 6.73 | (4.46) | 11.66 | |
| KSPI | Joint Stock | 1.13 | 3 per month | 1.37 | 0 | 3.31 | (2.51) | 8.44 | |
| FFIV | F5 Networks | 1.13 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.47 | (3.08) | 9.21 | |
| KLAR | Klarna Group plc | 0.33 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.76 | (6.00) | 14.39 | |
| DOCU | DocuSign | (1.19) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.81 | (4.99) | 12.28 | |
| BILI | Bilibili | 0.01 | 10 per month | 2.22 | 0.09 | 6.51 | (4.78) | 15.75 | |
| BSY | Bentley Systems | 1.13 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 2.05 | (2.67) | 6.18 | |
| RBRK | Rubrik | 1.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.72 | (5.52) | 29.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lumentum Holdings
For every potential investor in Lumentum, whether a beginner or expert, Lumentum Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lumentum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lumentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lumentum Holdings' price trends.Lumentum Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lumentum Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lumentum Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lumentum Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lumentum Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lumentum Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lumentum Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lumentum Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lumentum Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 472634.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.19) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 370.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 365.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (20.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.95) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.82 |
Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lumentum Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lumentum Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lumentum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.58 | |||
| Variance | 43.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 39.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 27.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lumentum Holdings
The number of cover stories for Lumentum Holdings depends on current market conditions and Lumentum Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lumentum Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lumentum Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lumentum Holdings Short Properties
Lumentum Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lumentum Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lumentum Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lumentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 877.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. If investors know Lumentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.584 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.