Lumentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| LITE Stock | USD 87.20 1.89 2.12% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
80
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.27 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.98 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.67 | Wall Street Target Price 86.9375 |
Using Lumentum Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lumentum Holdings from the perspective of Lumentum Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lumentum Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lumentum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lumentum Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 89.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Lumentum |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumentum Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lumentum Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lumentum Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lumentum Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lumentum Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lumentum Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lumentum Holdings' historical news coverage. Lumentum Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.16 and 92.92, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lumentum Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lumentum Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lumentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lumentum Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lumentum Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lumentum Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 3.40 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
87.20 | 89.54 | 0.51 |
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Lumentum Holdings Hype Timeline
Lumentum Holdings is now traded for 87.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Lumentum is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 89.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.71%. The volatility of related hype on Lumentum Holdings is about 1172.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.41. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (546.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 851.6 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Lumentum Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lumentum Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lumentum Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lumentum Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Lumentum Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lumentum Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICHR | Ichor Holdings | (0.91) | 8 per month | 2.87 | 0.02 | 4.28 | (5.22) | 21.12 | |
| FN | Fabrinet | 0.62 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.68 | (6.81) | 16.19 | |
| MOMO | Hello Group | 0.35 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.99 | (4.28) | 15.29 | |
| UCTT | Ultra Clean Holdings | 1.10 | 7 per month | 3.13 | (0.03) | 5.13 | (5.21) | 20.10 |
Lumentum Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lumentum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lumentum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lumentum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Lumentum Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lumentum Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lumentum Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings based on analysis of Lumentum Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lumentum Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lumentum Holdings's related companies. | 2017 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.85E-4 | 2.23E-4 | 2.75E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.19 | 2.52 | 2.89 |
Story Coverage note for Lumentum Holdings
The number of cover stories for Lumentum Holdings depends on current market conditions and Lumentum Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lumentum Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lumentum Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lumentum Holdings Short Properties
Lumentum Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lumentum Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lumentum Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lumentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 887 M |
Complementary Tools for Lumentum Stock analysis
When running Lumentum Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Lumentum Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lumentum Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Lumentum Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lumentum Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lumentum Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lumentum Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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