Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| LITE Stock | USD 94.41 5.05 5.65% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 89.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 209.75. Lumentum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lumentum Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Lumentum Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lumentum Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Lumentum |
Open Interest Against 2025-03-21 Lumentum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lumentum Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lumentum Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lumentum Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lumentum Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lumentum Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lumentum Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lumentum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lumentum Holdings Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Lumentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 89.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44, mean absolute percentage error of 17.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 209.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lumentum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lumentum Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lumentum Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lumentum Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lumentum Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lumentum Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.12 and 92.78, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lumentum Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lumentum Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.9669 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4386 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0433 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 209.7538 |
Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lumentum Holdings
For every potential investor in Lumentum, whether a beginner or expert, Lumentum Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lumentum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lumentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lumentum Holdings' price trends.Lumentum Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lumentum Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lumentum Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lumentum Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lumentum Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lumentum Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lumentum Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Lumentum Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lumentum Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lumentum Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lumentum Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lumentum Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lumentum Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lumentum Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lumentum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Variance | 11.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| BTC | Bitcoin | |
| TRX | TRON | |
| BNB | Binance Coin |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. If investors know Lumentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share (8.78) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.