Matthews International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.27
| MATW Stock | USD 30.84 5.35 20.99% |
Matthews |
Matthews International Target Price Odds to finish over 29.27
The tendency of Matthews Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 29.27 in 90 days |
| 30.84 | 90 days | 29.27 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Matthews International to stay above $ 29.27 in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Matthews International probability density function shows the probability of Matthews Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Matthews International price to stay between $ 29.27 and its current price of $30.84 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Matthews International will likely underperform. Additionally Matthews International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Matthews International Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Matthews International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matthews International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matthews International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matthews International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Matthews International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Matthews International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Matthews International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Matthews International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Matthews International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Matthews International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Matthews International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Matthews International had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Matthews International Reports Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2024 |
Matthews International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Matthews Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Matthews International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Matthews International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 42.1 M |
Matthews International Technical Analysis
Matthews International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Matthews Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Matthews International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Matthews Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Matthews International Predictive Forecast Models
Matthews International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Matthews International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Matthews International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Matthews International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Matthews International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Matthews International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Matthews International had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Matthews International Reports Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2024 |
Additional Tools for Matthews Stock Analysis
When running Matthews International's price analysis, check to measure Matthews International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Matthews International is operating at the current time. Most of Matthews International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Matthews International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Matthews International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Matthews International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.