Mge Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 104.86
| MGEE Stock | USD 104.14 0.01 0.01% |
MGE |
MGE Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 104.86
The tendency of MGE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 104.86 or more in 90 days |
| 104.14 | 90 days | 104.86 | roughly 2.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MGE Energy to move over $ 104.86 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.27 (This MGE Energy probability density function shows the probability of MGE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MGE Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 104.14 and $ 104.86 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MGE Energy will likely underperform. Additionally MGE Energy has an alpha of 0.1624, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MGE Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MGE Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGE Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MGE Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MGE Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MGE Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MGE Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MGE Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MGE Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
MGE Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MGE Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MGE Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MGE Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. Expands Stake in MGE Energy Inc |
MGE Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MGE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MGE Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGE Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.1 M |
MGE Energy Technical Analysis
MGE Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MGE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MGE Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing MGE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MGE Energy Predictive Forecast Models
MGE Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many MGE Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MGE Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MGE Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about MGE Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MGE Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MGE Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. Expands Stake in MGE Energy Inc |
Check out MGE Energy Backtesting, MGE Energy Valuation, MGE Energy Correlation, MGE Energy Hype Analysis, MGE Energy Volatility, MGE Energy History as well as MGE Energy Performance. For information on how to trade MGE Stock refer to our How to Trade MGE Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGE Energy. If investors know MGE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MGE Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.079 | Dividend Share 1.732 | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 18.071 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 |
The market value of MGE Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGE Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGE Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MGE Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGE Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MGE Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MGE Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MGE Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.