MGE Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MGEE Stock | USD 79.88 0.94 1.19% |
MGE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MGE Energy stock prices and determine the direction of MGE Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MGE Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of MGE Energy's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MGE Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MGE Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MGE Energy from the perspective of MGE Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGE Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 79.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.19. MGE Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 79.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGE Energy to cross-verify your projections. MGE Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MGE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MGE using various technical indicators. When you analyze MGE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MGE Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGE Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 79.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MGE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MGE Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MGE Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MGE Energy | MGE Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MGE Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MGE Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MGE Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.88 and 80.88, respectively. We have considered MGE Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MGE Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MGE Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0488 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6365 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.19 |
Predictive Modules for MGE Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGE Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MGE Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MGE Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MGE Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MGE Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MGE Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MGE Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MGE Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MGE Energy's historical news coverage. MGE Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.88 and 80.88, respectively. We have considered MGE Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MGE Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MGE Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
MGE Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MGE Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MGE Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MGE Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
79.88 | 79.88 | 0.00 |
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MGE Energy Hype Timeline
MGE Energy is now traded for 79.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MGE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on MGE Energy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 79.88. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of MGE Energy was now reported as 35.51. The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of February 2026. MGE Energy had 3:2 split on the 10th of February 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGE Energy to cross-verify your projections.MGE Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MGE Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MGE Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how MGE Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MGE Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVA | Avista | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.10 | 1.71 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| OTTR | Otter Tail | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | 0.14 | 2.02 | (1.87) | 7.91 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.29 | 3.54 | (2.86) | 10.67 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | (0.04) | 1.99 | (1.71) | 5.00 | |
| ALE | Allete Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.34 | (0.18) | 0.49 | |
| NWE | NorthWestern | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.13 | 1.78 | (1.80) | 6.73 | |
| RNW | Renew Energy Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.24 | (3.95) | 28.65 | |
| AWR | American States Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | (0.0006) | 1.53 | (1.45) | 5.99 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | (0.03) | 2.22 | (2.15) | 7.55 | |
| HE | Hawaiian Electric Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.17 | 4.47 | (3.47) | 12.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for MGE Energy
For every potential investor in MGE, whether a beginner or expert, MGE Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MGE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MGE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MGE Energy's price trends.MGE Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MGE Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MGE Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MGE Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MGE Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MGE Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MGE Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MGE Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MGE Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MGE Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of MGE Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MGE Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mge stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7753 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9989 | |||
| Variance | 0.9978 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MGE Energy
The number of cover stories for MGE Energy depends on current market conditions and MGE Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MGE Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MGE Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MGE Energy Short Properties
MGE Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when MGE Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MGE Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MGE Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGE Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGE Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade MGE Stock refer to our How to Trade MGE Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could MGE diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGE Energy. Expected growth trajectory for MGE significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every MGE Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate MGE Energy using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating MGE Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause MGE Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that MGE Energy's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MGE Energy represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, MGE Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.