Msc Industrial Direct Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 75.72
| MSM Stock | USD 84.13 2.79 3.43% |
MSC |
MSC Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 75.72
The tendency of MSC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 75.72 or more in 90 days |
| 84.13 | 90 days | 75.72 | about 1.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MSC Industrial to drop to $ 75.72 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.94 (This MSC Industrial Direct probability density function shows the probability of MSC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MSC Industrial Direct price to stay between $ 75.72 and its current price of $84.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.6 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.0 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MSC Industrial will likely underperform. Additionally MSC Industrial Direct has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MSC Industrial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MSC Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MSC Industrial Direct. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MSC Industrial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MSC Industrial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MSC Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MSC Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MSC Industrial Direct, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MSC Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
MSC Industrial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MSC Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MSC Industrial Direct can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Meeder Asset Management Inc. Reduces Holdings in MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. |
MSC Industrial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MSC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MSC Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MSC Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.6 M |
MSC Industrial Technical Analysis
MSC Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MSC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MSC Industrial Direct. In general, you should focus on analyzing MSC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MSC Industrial Predictive Forecast Models
MSC Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many MSC Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MSC Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MSC Industrial Direct
Checking the ongoing alerts about MSC Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MSC Industrial Direct help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Meeder Asset Management Inc. Reduces Holdings in MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. |
Check out MSC Industrial Backtesting, MSC Industrial Valuation, MSC Industrial Correlation, MSC Industrial Hype Analysis, MSC Industrial Volatility, MSC Industrial History as well as MSC Industrial Performance. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MSC Industrial. If investors know MSC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MSC Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Dividend Share 3.34 | Earnings Share 4.58 | Revenue Per Share 67.92 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
The market value of MSC Industrial Direct is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MSC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MSC Industrial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MSC Industrial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MSC Industrial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MSC Industrial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MSC Industrial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MSC Industrial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MSC Industrial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.