Murphy Oil Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 39.09
| MUR Stock | USD 32.47 0.06 0.18% |
Murphy |
Murphy Oil Target Price Odds to finish over 39.09
The tendency of Murphy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 39.09 or more in 90 days |
| 32.47 | 90 days | 39.09 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Murphy Oil to move over $ 39.09 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Murphy Oil probability density function shows the probability of Murphy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Murphy Oil price to stay between its current price of $ 32.47 and $ 39.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.34 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Murphy Oil has a beta of 0.96. This indicates Murphy Oil market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Murphy Oil is expected to follow. Additionally Murphy Oil has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Murphy Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Murphy Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Murphy Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Murphy Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Murphy Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Murphy Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Murphy Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Murphy Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Murphy Oil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Murphy Oil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Murphy Oil has 2.09 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is OK given its current industry classification. Murphy Oil has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Murphy to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 86.0% of Murphy Oil shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Murphy Oil Co. Stock Holdings Decreased by Fisher Asset Management LLC |
Murphy Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Murphy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Murphy Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 317.1 M |
Murphy Oil Technical Analysis
Murphy Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Murphy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Murphy Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Murphy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Murphy Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Murphy Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Murphy Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Murphy Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Murphy Oil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Murphy Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Murphy Oil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Murphy Oil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Murphy Oil has 2.09 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is OK given its current industry classification. Murphy Oil has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Murphy to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 86.0% of Murphy Oil shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Murphy Oil Co. Stock Holdings Decreased by Fisher Asset Management LLC |
Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.