Murphy Oil Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MUR Stock | USD 30.09 0.99 3.19% |
Murphy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Murphy Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Murphy Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Murphy Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of Murphy Oil's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Murphy Oil, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3987 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.269 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0567 | Wall Street Target Price 30.6 |
Using Murphy Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy Oil from the perspective of Murphy Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy Oil using Murphy Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy Oil's stock price.
Murphy Oil Short Interest
An investor who is long Murphy Oil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Murphy Oil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Murphy Oil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.5869 | Short Percent 0.1517 | Short Ratio 6.35 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.7 M | 50 Day MA 31.771 |
Murphy Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 30.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10.Murphy Oil Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Murphy Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy Oil.
Murphy Oil Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Murphy Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy Oil's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 30.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10. Murphy Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 31.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy Oil to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Murphy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Murphy Oil will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Murphy Oil trading at USD 30.09, that is roughly USD 0.0122 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Murphy Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Murphy Oil options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Murphy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Murphy Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Murphy Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Murphy Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Murphy Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Murphy Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Murphy Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Murphy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Murphy Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Murphy Oil Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 30.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Murphy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Murphy Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Murphy Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Murphy Oil | Murphy Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Murphy Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Murphy Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Murphy Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.16 and 33.02, respectively. We have considered Murphy Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Murphy Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Murphy Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0405 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0823 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6517 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.1 |
Predictive Modules for Murphy Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Murphy Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Murphy Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Murphy Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Murphy Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Murphy Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Murphy Oil's historical news coverage. Murphy Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.18 and 33.98, respectively. We have considered Murphy Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Murphy Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Murphy Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Murphy Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Murphy Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Murphy Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.93 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.09 | 31.08 | 0.00 |
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Murphy Oil Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Murphy Oil is traded for 30.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Murphy is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Murphy Oil is about 542.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.98. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.87. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Murphy Oil has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.31. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of February 2026. The firm had 1158:1000 split on the 3rd of September 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy Oil to cross-verify your projections.Murphy Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Murphy Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Murphy Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Murphy Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Murphy Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRC | California Resources Corp | 0.38 | 10 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 3.31 | (3.01) | 7.25 | |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil Gas | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.61 | 0.06 | 2.65 | (2.81) | 6.10 | |
| VVV | Valvoline | 0.64 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.38 | (2.97) | 8.27 | |
| VAL | Valaris | (0.82) | 8 per month | 2.43 | 0.01 | 3.76 | (3.39) | 13.35 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | (0.01) | 9 per month | 3.52 | (0) | 5.20 | (5.32) | 19.17 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | (0.45) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 3.14 | (4.46) | 19.04 | |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Operating | (2.87) | 10 per month | 2.42 | 0.03 | 3.11 | (3.84) | 13.69 | |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | (1.22) | 11 per month | 3.71 | 0.02 | 5.30 | (5.49) | 17.09 | |
| AROC | Archrock | (0.82) | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.08 | 2.65 | (2.44) | 6.67 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.15 | 3.92 | (2.79) | 13.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Murphy Oil
For every potential investor in Murphy, whether a beginner or expert, Murphy Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Murphy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Murphy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Murphy Oil's price trends.Murphy Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Murphy Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Murphy Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Murphy Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Murphy Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Murphy Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Murphy Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Murphy Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 218001.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.56) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.99) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.76 |
Murphy Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Murphy Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Murphy Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting murphy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Murphy Oil
The number of cover stories for Murphy Oil depends on current market conditions and Murphy Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Murphy Oil Short Properties
Murphy Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy Oil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 144 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 377 M |
Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.