Napco Security Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.22
| NSSC Stock | USD 40.06 0.84 2.14% |
NAPCO |
NAPCO Security Target Price Odds to finish below 38.22
The tendency of NAPCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.22 or more in 90 days |
| 40.06 | 90 days | 38.22 | about 33.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NAPCO Security to drop to $ 38.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 33.01 (This NAPCO Security Technologies probability density function shows the probability of NAPCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NAPCO Security Techn price to stay between $ 38.22 and its current price of $40.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.28 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.11 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, NAPCO Security will likely underperform. Additionally NAPCO Security Technologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NAPCO Security Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NAPCO Security
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NAPCO Security Techn. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NAPCO Security's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NAPCO Security Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NAPCO Security is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NAPCO Security's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NAPCO Security Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NAPCO Security within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
NAPCO Security Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NAPCO Security for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NAPCO Security Techn can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NAPCO Security Techn generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NAPCO Security Techn has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NAPCO Security Techn is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| NAPCO Security Techn has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 3rd of October 2024 NAPCO Security paid $ 0.125 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FMR LLC Increases Stake in NAPCO Security Technologies Inc - GuruFocus.com |
NAPCO Security Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NAPCO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NAPCO Security's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NAPCO Security's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 97.7 M |
NAPCO Security Technical Analysis
NAPCO Security's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NAPCO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NAPCO Security Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing NAPCO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NAPCO Security Predictive Forecast Models
NAPCO Security's time-series forecasting models is one of many NAPCO Security's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NAPCO Security's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NAPCO Security Techn
Checking the ongoing alerts about NAPCO Security for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NAPCO Security Techn help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NAPCO Security Techn generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NAPCO Security Techn has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NAPCO Security Techn is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| NAPCO Security Techn has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 3rd of October 2024 NAPCO Security paid $ 0.125 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FMR LLC Increases Stake in NAPCO Security Technologies Inc - GuruFocus.com |
Check out NAPCO Security Backtesting, NAPCO Security Valuation, NAPCO Security Correlation, NAPCO Security Hype Analysis, NAPCO Security Volatility, NAPCO Security History as well as NAPCO Security Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NAPCO Security. If investors know NAPCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NAPCO Security listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.071 | Dividend Share 0.405 | Earnings Share 1.36 | Revenue Per Share 5.191 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.056 |
The market value of NAPCO Security Techn is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NAPCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NAPCO Security's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NAPCO Security's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NAPCO Security's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NAPCO Security's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NAPCO Security's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NAPCO Security is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NAPCO Security's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.