NAPCO Security Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NSSC Stock | USD 43.23 1.44 3.22% |
NAPCO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NAPCO Security stock prices and determine the direction of NAPCO Security Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of NAPCO Security's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of NAPCO Security's share price is below 30 at the present time. This indicates that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling NAPCO Security Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 21
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NAPCO Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NAPCO Security Technologies from the perspective of NAPCO Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NAPCO Security Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 43.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.46. NAPCO Security after-hype prediction price | USD 43.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NAPCO Security to cross-verify your projections. NAPCO Security Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NAPCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NAPCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze NAPCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NAPCO Security Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NAPCO Security Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 43.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 1.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NAPCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NAPCO Security's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NAPCO Security Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NAPCO Security | NAPCO Security Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NAPCO Security Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NAPCO Security's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NAPCO Security's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.55 and 45.73, respectively. We have considered NAPCO Security's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NAPCO Security stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NAPCO Security stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1312 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7366 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.46 |
Predictive Modules for NAPCO Security
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NAPCO Security Techn. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NAPCO Security's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NAPCO Security After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NAPCO Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NAPCO Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NAPCO Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NAPCO Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NAPCO Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NAPCO Security's historical news coverage. NAPCO Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.61 and 45.79, respectively. We have considered NAPCO Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NAPCO Security is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NAPCO Security Techn is based on 3 months time horizon.
NAPCO Security Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NAPCO Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NAPCO Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NAPCO Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.23 | 43.20 | 0.00 |
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NAPCO Security Hype Timeline
NAPCO Security Techn is now traded for 43.23. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NAPCO is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on NAPCO Security is about 43166.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.23. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2026. NAPCO Security Techn had 2:1 split on the 5th of January 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NAPCO Security to cross-verify your projections.NAPCO Security Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NAPCO Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NAPCO Security's future price movements. Getting to know how NAPCO Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NAPCO Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.33 | 4.61 | (1.91) | 9.01 | |
| ICFI | ICF International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.06 | (4.34) | 15.36 | |
| WLDN | Willdan Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.21 | (5.72) | 32.67 | |
| TNC | Tennant Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.28 | (1.99) | 27.21 | |
| EVLV | Evolv Technologies Holdings | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.59 | (5.23) | 16.47 | |
| CYD | China Yuchai International | (1.99) | 9 per month | 3.31 | 0.1 | 6.68 | (6.26) | 21.76 | |
| JBI | Janus International Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.94 | 0.02 | 3.35 | (3.43) | 9.37 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | 0.13 | 11 per month | 5.66 | 0.03 | 7.26 | (6.76) | 28.87 | |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings | 1.38 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.63 | (5.14) | 23.15 | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | 0.51 | 7 per month | 3.25 | 0.07 | 6.98 | (5.78) | 16.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for NAPCO Security
For every potential investor in NAPCO, whether a beginner or expert, NAPCO Security's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NAPCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NAPCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NAPCO Security's price trends.NAPCO Security Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NAPCO Security stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NAPCO Security could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NAPCO Security by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NAPCO Security Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NAPCO Security stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NAPCO Security shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NAPCO Security stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NAPCO Security Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13245.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.01) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.41) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.44) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 21.3 |
NAPCO Security Risk Indicators
The analysis of NAPCO Security's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NAPCO Security's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting napco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NAPCO Security
The number of cover stories for NAPCO Security depends on current market conditions and NAPCO Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NAPCO Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NAPCO Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NAPCO Security Short Properties
NAPCO Security's future price predictability will typically decrease when NAPCO Security's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NAPCO Security Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NAPCO Security's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NAPCO Security's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 99.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NAPCO Security to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Will Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components sector continue expanding? Could NAPCO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NAPCO Security. Anticipated expansion of NAPCO directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every NAPCO Security data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate NAPCO Security Techn using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating NAPCO Security's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause NAPCO Security's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between NAPCO Security's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding NAPCO Security should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, NAPCO Security's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.