Oaktree Specialty Lending Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.82
| OCSL Stock | USD 15.85 0.29 1.86% |
Oaktree |
Oaktree Specialty Target Price Odds to finish below 17.82
The tendency of Oaktree Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 17.82 after 90 days |
| 15.85 | 90 days | 17.82 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oaktree Specialty to stay under $ 17.82 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Oaktree Specialty Lending probability density function shows the probability of Oaktree Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oaktree Specialty Lending price to stay between its current price of $ 15.85 and $ 17.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.2 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Oaktree Specialty has a beta of 0.52. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Oaktree Specialty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Oaktree Specialty Lending will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Oaktree Specialty Lending has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Oaktree Specialty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oaktree Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oaktree Specialty Lending. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oaktree Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oaktree Specialty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oaktree Specialty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oaktree Specialty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oaktree Specialty Lending, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oaktree Specialty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Oaktree Specialty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oaktree Specialty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oaktree Specialty Lending can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oaktree Specialty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Oaktree Specialty paid $ 0.55 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Oaktree Specialty Lending Receives Neutral Rating from JPMorgan Chase Co. |
Oaktree Specialty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oaktree Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oaktree Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oaktree Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64 M |
Oaktree Specialty Technical Analysis
Oaktree Specialty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oaktree Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oaktree Specialty Lending. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oaktree Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oaktree Specialty Predictive Forecast Models
Oaktree Specialty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oaktree Specialty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oaktree Specialty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oaktree Specialty Lending
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oaktree Specialty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oaktree Specialty Lending help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oaktree Specialty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Oaktree Specialty paid $ 0.55 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Oaktree Specialty Lending Receives Neutral Rating from JPMorgan Chase Co. |
Check out Oaktree Specialty Backtesting, Oaktree Specialty Valuation, Oaktree Specialty Correlation, Oaktree Specialty Hype Analysis, Oaktree Specialty Volatility, Oaktree Specialty History as well as Oaktree Specialty Performance. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oaktree Specialty. If investors know Oaktree will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oaktree Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share 4.913 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets 0.0575 |
The market value of Oaktree Specialty Lending is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oaktree that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oaktree Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oaktree Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oaktree Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oaktree Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oaktree Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oaktree Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oaktree Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.