Oaktree Specialty Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| OCSL Stock | USD 12.63 0.23 1.79% |
Oaktree Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Oaktree Specialty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Oaktree Specialty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Oaktree Specialty fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Oaktree Specialty's share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oaktree Specialty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3825 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5158 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5171 | Wall Street Target Price 13.7083 |
Using Oaktree Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oaktree Specialty Lending from the perspective of Oaktree Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Oaktree Specialty using Oaktree Specialty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Oaktree using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Oaktree Specialty's stock price.
Oaktree Specialty Short Interest
An investor who is long Oaktree Specialty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Oaktree Specialty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Oaktree Specialty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.6478 | Short Percent 0.0185 | Short Ratio 1.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 13.1716 |
Oaktree Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oaktree Specialty Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 12.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.05.Oaktree Specialty Lending Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oaktree Specialty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oaktree. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oaktree can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oaktree Specialty Lending. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oaktree Specialty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oaktree Specialty.
Oaktree Specialty Implied Volatility | 1.25 |
Oaktree Specialty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Oaktree Specialty Lending stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Oaktree Specialty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Oaktree Specialty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Oaktree Specialty's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oaktree Specialty Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 12.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.05. Oaktree Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 12.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Specialty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Oaktree contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Oaktree Specialty Lending will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0781% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Oaktree Specialty trading at USD 12.63, that is roughly USD 0.009867 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Oaktree Specialty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Oaktree Specialty Lending options at the current volatility level of 1.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Oaktree Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Oaktree Specialty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Oaktree Specialty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Oaktree Specialty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Oaktree Specialty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Oaktree Specialty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Oaktree Specialty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Oaktree. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Oaktree Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oaktree price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oaktree using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oaktree charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oaktree Specialty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oaktree Specialty Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 12.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oaktree Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oaktree Specialty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oaktree Specialty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oaktree Specialty | Oaktree Specialty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oaktree Specialty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oaktree Specialty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oaktree Specialty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.51 and 13.71, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Specialty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oaktree Specialty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oaktree Specialty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.02 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1176 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.0531 |
Predictive Modules for Oaktree Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oaktree Specialty Lending. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oaktree Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oaktree Specialty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oaktree Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oaktree Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oaktree Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oaktree Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oaktree Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oaktree Specialty's historical news coverage. Oaktree Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.53 and 13.73, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oaktree Specialty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oaktree Specialty Lending is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oaktree Specialty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oaktree Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oaktree Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oaktree Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.10 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 13 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.63 | 12.63 | 0.00 |
|
Oaktree Specialty Hype Timeline
Oaktree Specialty Lending is now traded for 12.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Oaktree is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oaktree Specialty is about 1549.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.64. About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.77. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oaktree Specialty Lending has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 1:3 split on the 23rd of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Specialty to cross-verify your projections.Oaktree Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oaktree Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oaktree Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Oaktree Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oaktree Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAVI | Navient Corp | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.14 | (4.32) | 11.01 | |
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | (0.12) | 5 per month | 1.02 | (0.07) | 1.88 | (1.93) | 4.85 | |
| LU | Lufax Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.49 | (4.04) | 16.24 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.04 | 10 per month | 1.61 | 0.03 | 4.60 | (3.05) | 10.92 | |
| JCAP | Jefferson Capital Common | 0.30 | 7 per month | 2.20 | 0.11 | 4.12 | (2.68) | 17.08 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.14 | 1 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 | |
| BBDC | Barings BDC | 0.1 | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.04 | 1.44 | (1.34) | 4.34 | |
| EZPW | EZCORP Inc | 0.14 | 1 per month | 1.48 | 0.11 | 3.30 | (2.56) | 9.31 | |
| PRA | ProAssurance | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.21 | (0.34) | 0.38 | (0.41) | 1.04 | |
| MFIC | MidCap Financial Investment | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.18 | (1.47) | 6.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oaktree Specialty
For every potential investor in Oaktree, whether a beginner or expert, Oaktree Specialty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oaktree Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oaktree. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oaktree Specialty's price trends.Oaktree Specialty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oaktree Specialty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oaktree Specialty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oaktree Specialty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oaktree Specialty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oaktree Specialty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oaktree Specialty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oaktree Specialty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oaktree Specialty Lending entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20256.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.72) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.69 |
Oaktree Specialty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oaktree Specialty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oaktree Specialty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oaktree stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.827 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oaktree Specialty
The number of cover stories for Oaktree Specialty depends on current market conditions and Oaktree Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oaktree Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oaktree Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Oaktree Specialty Short Properties
Oaktree Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oaktree Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oaktree Specialty Lending often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oaktree Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oaktree Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Specialty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oaktree Specialty. If investors know Oaktree will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oaktree Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Dividend Share 1.75 | Earnings Share 0.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Oaktree Specialty Lending is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oaktree that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oaktree Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oaktree Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oaktree Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oaktree Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oaktree Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oaktree Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oaktree Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.