Peloton Interactive Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.45
| PTON Stock | USD 9.58 0.04 0.42% |
Peloton |
Peloton Interactive Target Price Odds to finish below 3.45
The tendency of Peloton Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.45 or more in 90 days |
| 9.58 | 90 days | 3.45 | about 6.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Peloton Interactive to drop to $ 3.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.17 (This Peloton Interactive probability density function shows the probability of Peloton Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Peloton Interactive price to stay between $ 3.45 and its current price of $9.58 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 93.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Peloton Interactive will likely underperform. Moreover Peloton Interactive has an alpha of 1.1449, implying that it can generate a 1.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Peloton Interactive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Peloton Interactive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peloton Interactive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Peloton Interactive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Peloton Interactive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Peloton Interactive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Peloton Interactive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Peloton Interactive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Peloton Interactive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Peloton Interactive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Peloton Interactive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Peloton Interactive is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Peloton Interactive appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Peloton Interactive has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.7 B. Net Loss for the year was (551.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 923.6 M. | |
| Peloton Interactive currently holds about 1.25 B in cash with (66.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.7. | |
| Peloton Interactive has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Jennifer Cotter Sells 47,024 Shares of Peloton Interactive Inc |
Peloton Interactive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Peloton Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Peloton Interactive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Peloton Interactive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 365.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 697.6 M |
Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis
Peloton Interactive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Peloton Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Peloton Interactive. In general, you should focus on analyzing Peloton Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Peloton Interactive Predictive Forecast Models
Peloton Interactive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Peloton Interactive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Peloton Interactive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Peloton Interactive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Peloton Interactive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Peloton Interactive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Peloton Interactive is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Peloton Interactive appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Peloton Interactive has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.7 B. Net Loss for the year was (551.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 923.6 M. | |
| Peloton Interactive currently holds about 1.25 B in cash with (66.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.7. | |
| Peloton Interactive has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Jennifer Cotter Sells 47,024 Shares of Peloton Interactive Inc |
Check out Peloton Interactive Backtesting, Peloton Interactive Valuation, Peloton Interactive Correlation, Peloton Interactive Hype Analysis, Peloton Interactive Volatility, Peloton Interactive History as well as Peloton Interactive Performance. To learn how to invest in Peloton Stock, please use our How to Invest in Peloton Interactive guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Peloton Interactive. If investors know Peloton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Peloton Interactive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.07) | Revenue Per Share 7.26 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (8.47) |
The market value of Peloton Interactive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Peloton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Peloton Interactive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Peloton Interactive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Peloton Interactive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Peloton Interactive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Peloton Interactive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Peloton Interactive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Peloton Interactive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.