Peloton Interactive Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PTON Stock | USD 5.80 0.01 0.17% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peloton Interactive on the next trading day is expected to be 5.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.67. Peloton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Peloton Interactive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Peloton Interactive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Peloton Interactive fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Peloton Interactive's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1459 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1972 | Wall Street Target Price 10.4281 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0029 |
Using Peloton Interactive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Peloton Interactive from the perspective of Peloton Interactive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Peloton Interactive using Peloton Interactive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Peloton using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Peloton Interactive's stock price.
Peloton Interactive Short Interest
An investor who is long Peloton Interactive may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Peloton Interactive and may potentially protect profits, hedge Peloton Interactive with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.9817 | Short Percent 0.1662 | Short Ratio 9.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 66.2 M | 50 Day MA 6.5578 |
Peloton Interactive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Peloton Interactive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Peloton. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Peloton can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Peloton Interactive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Peloton Interactive Implied Volatility | 1.11 |
Peloton Interactive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Peloton Interactive stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Peloton Interactive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Peloton Interactive stock will not fluctuate a lot when Peloton Interactive's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peloton Interactive on the next trading day is expected to be 5.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.67.
Peloton Interactive after-hype prediction price | USD 6.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Peloton Interactive to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Peloton contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Peloton Interactive will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0694% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Peloton Interactive trading at USD 5.8, that is roughly USD 0.004024 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Peloton Interactive's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Peloton Interactive options at the current volatility level of 1.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Peloton Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Peloton Interactive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Peloton Interactive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Peloton Interactive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Peloton Interactive's open interest, investors have to compare it to Peloton Interactive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Peloton Interactive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Peloton. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Peloton Interactive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Peloton price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Peloton using various technical indicators. When you analyze Peloton charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Peloton Interactive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peloton Interactive on the next trading day is expected to be 5.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Peloton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Peloton Interactive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Peloton Interactive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Peloton Interactive | Peloton Interactive Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Peloton Interactive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Peloton Interactive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Peloton Interactive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.37 and 9.23, respectively. We have considered Peloton Interactive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Peloton Interactive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Peloton Interactive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1331 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0387 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1586 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.6726 |
Predictive Modules for Peloton Interactive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peloton Interactive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Peloton Interactive After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Peloton Interactive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Peloton Interactive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Peloton Interactive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Peloton Interactive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Peloton Interactive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Peloton Interactive's historical news coverage. Peloton Interactive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.10 and 9.96, respectively. We have considered Peloton Interactive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Peloton Interactive is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Peloton Interactive is based on 3 months time horizon.
Peloton Interactive Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Peloton Interactive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Peloton Interactive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Peloton Interactive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 3.43 | 0.73 | 0.17 | 19 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.80 | 6.53 | 12.59 |
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Peloton Interactive Hype Timeline
Peloton Interactive is at this time traded for 5.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.73, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Peloton is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 191.62%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 12.59%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Peloton Interactive is about 816.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.97. Peloton Interactive currently holds 1.98 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.0, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Peloton Interactive has a current ratio of 2.33, suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Peloton Interactive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Peloton Interactive to cross-verify your projections.Peloton Interactive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Peloton Interactive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Peloton Interactive's future price movements. Getting to know how Peloton Interactive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Peloton Interactive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YETI | YETI Holdings | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.20 | 4.49 | (3.10) | 12.03 | |
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | 0.22 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.60 | (5.35) | 28.36 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | (0.08) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.69 | (2.86) | 10.62 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.08) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.52 | (6.75) | 27.50 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | (0.30) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.75 | (4.37) | 16.72 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | 2.91 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.85 | (3.53) | 8.62 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.73 | (2.70) | 9.51 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 2.27 | 12 per month | 2.13 | 0.25 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.23 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | 0.35 | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.20 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| KAR | KAR Auction Services | (0.88) | 15 per month | 1.42 | 0.04 | 2.59 | (2.37) | 6.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Peloton Interactive
For every potential investor in Peloton, whether a beginner or expert, Peloton Interactive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Peloton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Peloton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Peloton Interactive's price trends.Peloton Interactive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Peloton Interactive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Peloton Interactive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Peloton Interactive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Peloton Interactive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Peloton Interactive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Peloton Interactive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Peloton Interactive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Peloton Interactive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 277885.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.05) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.8 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Peloton Interactive Risk Indicators
The analysis of Peloton Interactive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Peloton Interactive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting peloton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Variance | 11.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Peloton Interactive
The number of cover stories for Peloton Interactive depends on current market conditions and Peloton Interactive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Peloton Interactive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Peloton Interactive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Peloton Interactive Short Properties
Peloton Interactive's future price predictability will typically decrease when Peloton Interactive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Peloton Interactive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Peloton Interactive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Peloton Interactive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 390 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Peloton Interactive to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Peloton Stock, please use our How to Invest in Peloton Interactive guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Peloton Interactive. If investors know Peloton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Peloton Interactive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Peloton Interactive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Peloton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Peloton Interactive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Peloton Interactive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Peloton Interactive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Peloton Interactive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Peloton Interactive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Peloton Interactive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Peloton Interactive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.