Redwire Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.19
| RDW Stock | USD 11.68 0.66 5.99% |
Redwire |
Redwire Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 7.19
The tendency of Redwire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.19 or more in 90 days |
| 11.68 | 90 days | 7.19 | about 35.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Redwire Corp to drop to $ 7.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.45 (This Redwire Corp probability density function shows the probability of Redwire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Redwire Corp price to stay between $ 7.19 and its current price of $11.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.64 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Redwire Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Redwire Corp has an alpha of 0.683, implying that it can generate a 0.68 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Redwire Corp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Redwire Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Redwire Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Redwire Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Redwire Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Redwire Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Redwire Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Redwire Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Redwire Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Redwire Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Redwire Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Redwire Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Redwire Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Redwire Corp has 105.83 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.68, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Redwire Corp has a current ratio of 0.8, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Redwire to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 243.8 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (27.26 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 29.38 M. | |
| About 57.0% of Redwire Corp outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Redwire Corp Stock Price Up 4.04 percent on Nov 19 |
Redwire Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Redwire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Redwire Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Redwire Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 30.3 M |
Redwire Corp Technical Analysis
Redwire Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Redwire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Redwire Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Redwire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Redwire Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Redwire Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Redwire Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Redwire Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Redwire Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Redwire Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Redwire Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Redwire Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Redwire Corp has 105.83 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.68, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Redwire Corp has a current ratio of 0.8, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Redwire to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 243.8 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (27.26 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 29.38 M. | |
| About 57.0% of Redwire Corp outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Redwire Corp Stock Price Up 4.04 percent on Nov 19 |
Additional Tools for Redwire Stock Analysis
When running Redwire Corp's price analysis, check to measure Redwire Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Redwire Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Redwire Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Redwire Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Redwire Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Redwire Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.