Redwire Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| RDW Stock | USD 11.75 1.06 8.27% |
Redwire Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Redwire Corp's share price is at 56 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Redwire Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.10) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.38) | Wall Street Target Price 13.1111 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.13) |
Using Redwire Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Redwire Corp from the perspective of Redwire Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Redwire Corp using Redwire Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Redwire using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Redwire Corp's stock price.
Redwire Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Redwire Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Redwire Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Redwire Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.8117 | Short Percent 0.1832 | Short Ratio 1.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.9 M | 50 Day MA 8.414 |
Redwire Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Redwire Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.89.Redwire Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Redwire Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Redwire. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Redwire can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Redwire Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Redwire Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Redwire Corp.
Redwire Corp Implied Volatility | 1.3 |
Redwire Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Redwire Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Redwire Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Redwire Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Redwire Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Redwire Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.89. Redwire Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 11.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Redwire Corp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Redwire contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Redwire Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0813% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Redwire Corp trading at USD 11.75, that is roughly USD 0.009547 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Redwire Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Redwire Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Redwire Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Redwire Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Redwire Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Redwire Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Redwire Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Redwire Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Redwire Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Redwire. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Redwire Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Redwire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Redwire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Redwire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Redwire Corp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Redwire Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Redwire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Redwire Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Redwire Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Redwire Corp | Redwire Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Redwire Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Redwire Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Redwire Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.86 and 20.19, respectively. We have considered Redwire Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Redwire Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Redwire Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3366 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8834 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.8854 |
Predictive Modules for Redwire Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Redwire Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Redwire Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Redwire Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Redwire Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Redwire Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Redwire Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Redwire Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Redwire Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Redwire Corp's historical news coverage. Redwire Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.53 and 19.97, respectively. We have considered Redwire Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Redwire Corp is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Redwire Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Redwire Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Redwire Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Redwire Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Redwire Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.07 | 8.16 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 18 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.75 | 11.75 | 0.00 |
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Redwire Corp Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Redwire Corp is traded for 11.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.49. Redwire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Redwire Corp is about 1777.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.26. About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Redwire Corp was at this time reported as 5.98. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.85. Redwire Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Redwire Corp to cross-verify your projections.Redwire Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Redwire Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Redwire Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Redwire Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Redwire Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BLDP | Ballard Power Systems | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.96 | (5.88) | 15.31 | |
| EVEX | Eve Holding | (0.30) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.46 | (5.65) | 19.07 | |
| UP | Wheels Up Experience | (0.30) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 11.94 | (13.58) | 61.04 | |
| ALGT | Allegiant Travel | (1.98) | 8 per month | 2.36 | 0.12 | 5.92 | (4.61) | 31.33 | |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products | (3.72) | 8 per month | 2.89 | 0.05 | 4.06 | (5.33) | 11.80 | |
| LMB | Limbach Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.25 | (5.25) | 12.56 | |
| BBSI | Barrett Business Services | (0.24) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.17 | (2.57) | 15.33 | |
| ASTE | Astec Industries | 1.66 | 9 per month | 1.72 | 0 | 3.72 | (2.82) | 7.79 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.84 | (2.58) | 8.53 | |
| GSL | Global Ship Lease | 0.46 | 11 per month | 0.98 | 0.21 | 2.89 | (2.24) | 12.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Redwire Corp
For every potential investor in Redwire, whether a beginner or expert, Redwire Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Redwire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Redwire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Redwire Corp's price trends.Redwire Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Redwire Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Redwire Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Redwire Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Redwire Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Redwire Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Redwire Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Redwire Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Redwire Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Redwire Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Redwire Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Redwire Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting redwire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.01 | |||
| Variance | 64.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 41.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 36.91 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Redwire Corp
The number of cover stories for Redwire Corp depends on current market conditions and Redwire Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Redwire Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Redwire Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Redwire Corp Short Properties
Redwire Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Redwire Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Redwire Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Redwire Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Redwire Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.1 M |
Additional Tools for Redwire Stock Analysis
When running Redwire Corp's price analysis, check to measure Redwire Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Redwire Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Redwire Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Redwire Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Redwire Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Redwire Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.