United Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.75
| UBCP Stock | USD 13.36 0.40 2.91% |
United |
United Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 10.75
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 10.75 in 90 days |
| 13.36 | 90 days | 10.75 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Bancorp to stay above $ 10.75 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This United Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Bancorp price to stay between $ 10.75 and its current price of $13.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.71 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days United Bancorp has a beta of -0.4. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding United Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, United Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally United Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0469, implying that it can generate a 0.0469 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.4 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
United Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United Bancorp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: United Bancorp Inc. Stock Surges Over 5 percent Amidst Market Activity |
United Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.8 M |
United Bancorp Technical Analysis
United Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
United Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United Bancorp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: United Bancorp Inc. Stock Surges Over 5 percent Amidst Market Activity |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure United Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of United Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.