Vale SA (Mexico) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 196.70
| VALEN Stock | MXN 200.17 10.17 5.35% |
Vale |
Vale SA Target Price Odds to finish over 196.70
The tendency of Vale Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 196.70 in 90 days |
| 200.17 | 90 days | 196.70 | about 92.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vale SA to stay above 196.70 in 90 days from now is about 92.8 (This Vale SA probability density function shows the probability of Vale Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vale SA price to stay between 196.70 and its current price of 200.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vale SA has a beta of 0.22. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vale SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vale SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vale SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vale SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vale SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vale SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vale SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vale SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vale SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vale SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Vale SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vale Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vale SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Vale SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vale Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vale SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vale Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vale SA Predictive Forecast Models
Vale SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vale SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vale SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vale SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vale SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vale SA options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Vale Stock
Vale SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vale Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vale with respect to the benefits of owning Vale SA security.