Valvoline Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.57
| VVV Stock | USD 38.57 0.01 0.03% |
Valvoline |
Valvoline Target Price Odds to finish below 38.57
The tendency of Valvoline Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 38.57 | 90 days | 38.57 | about 1.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Valvoline to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 1.29 (This Valvoline probability density function shows the probability of Valvoline Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This entails Valvoline market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Valvoline is expected to follow. Additionally Valvoline has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Valvoline Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Valvoline
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valvoline. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valvoline's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Valvoline Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Valvoline is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Valvoline's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Valvoline, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Valvoline within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Valvoline Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Valvoline for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Valvoline can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Valvoline generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Valvoline has about 409.1 M in cash with (40.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Valvoline has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Robert W. Baird Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Valvoline Stock Price |
Valvoline Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Valvoline Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Valvoline's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valvoline's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 756.6 M |
Valvoline Technical Analysis
Valvoline's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Valvoline Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Valvoline. In general, you should focus on analyzing Valvoline Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Valvoline Predictive Forecast Models
Valvoline's time-series forecasting models is one of many Valvoline's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Valvoline's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Valvoline
Checking the ongoing alerts about Valvoline for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Valvoline help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Valvoline generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Valvoline has about 409.1 M in cash with (40.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Valvoline has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Robert W. Baird Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Valvoline Stock Price |
Additional Tools for Valvoline Stock Analysis
When running Valvoline's price analysis, check to measure Valvoline's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valvoline is operating at the current time. Most of Valvoline's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valvoline's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valvoline's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valvoline to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.