Valvoline Stock Performance

VVV Stock  USD 33.24  0.01  0.03%   
For Valvoline, absolute and relative returns are mapped against common benchmarks. The stock's expected return across the 3 months window is 0.0222%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
During the last 90 trading days, Valvoline produced negative risk-adjusted performance, which signals weak return efficiency for investors with long positions. When applied, this score supports evaluation of raw price movement versus actual return efficiency. Valvoline is delivering weak return efficiency relative to its risk profile. Newest price sell-off suggests continued near-short-term downside pressure for market participants. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
2.78
 Five Day Return
-2.12
 Year To Date Return
14.35
 Ten Year Return
43.85
 All Time Return
43.85
 Dividend Date
2022-12-15
 Ex Dividend Date
2022-12-01

Performance Related Modules

Earnings links to analyst estimate history and revisions, Ownership shows shareholder mix, Profitability focuses on margin and return ratios, Liquidity covers cash-flow strength and short-term funding capacity, and Fundamentals groups the broader financial ratio set.

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 3,320 in Valvoline on January 27, 2026 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 4.00 from holding Valvoline or generated 0.12% return on investment over 90 days. Valvoline is generating a 0.0222% daily return assuming volatility of 2.043% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In relative terms, Valvoline exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 82% of comparable stocks, and VVV delivers lower expected returns than 99% of comparable equities over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary evaluates how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Over a 90-day investment horizon, VVV generates 2.16 times more return on investment than the market. However, VVV is 2.16 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.01% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.01% per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price convergence toward a historical mean is a well-documented pattern for stocks like Valvoline Stock. Although this tendency is a useful forecasting input, some instruments remain persistently mispriced before market correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
33.24 90 days 33.24
about 79.08
Our distribution model estimates the likelihood of Valvoline moving above the current price in 90 days from now at about 79.08 . Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (This Valvoline distribution emphasizes the price range most consistent with recent behavior in Valvoline Stock over a 90-day period).
Over a 90-day investment horizon, the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.08 . This entails Valvoline market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Valvoline tends to follow. Additionally, Valvoline has an alpha of 0.0445, implying that it can generate a 0.0445 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Valvoline Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Valvoline

Investors apply quantitative and fundamental models to forecast Valvoline within the stock market. Combining results from different methods frames the confidence level warranted by Valvoline predictions.
Statistical evidence for mean reversion in Valvoline's appears through its tendency to revert after extreme valuations. Under mean reversion theory, Valvoline's price extremes are viewed as temporary dislocations that may self-correct.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
31.2033.2435.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
18.8320.8736.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
29.8531.8933.93
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
37.9841.7346.32
Details
Valvoline is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where Valvoline leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set.

Primary Risk Indicators

Significant market corrections and rallies over the last two decades have made the stock market challenging for Valvoline investors. Dramatic market moves have periodically reshaped the risk landscape for holders of Valvoline.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.08
σ
Overall volatility
2.15
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Investor Alerts and Insights

Tracking Valvoline through automated alerts focuses attention on the most impactful stock developments. Reviewing Valvoline notifications is an efficient way to stay current on technical patterns and fundamental changes.
Valvoline has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Automotive Lubricants Market to Cross 122 Billion by 2031, CAGR of 5.4 percent New Industry Research by The Insight Partners.

Price Density Drivers

Several forces contribute to Valvoline's price dynamics, including buyer and seller positioning dynamics and market conditions. Monitoring Valvoline's price density drivers provides context for distinguishing fundamental from tactical price moves.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding128.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments51.6 M

Valvoline Fundamentals Growth

Market participants price Valvoline Stock based on their assessment of Valvoline's financial trajectory. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core fundamentals driving Valvoline Stock.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Valvoline risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Adjusting for volatility reveals whether realized returns were earned efficiently or through excessive exposure. Valvoline shows ROE of 33.01%, ROA of 4.92% (TTM) vs 13.0% (last reported).

Valvoline metrics are compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized before display. Analyst projections are included when active coverage applies. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board