Arch Capital Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ACGL Stock | USD 93.51 0.93 0.98% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Arch Capital Group is 'Cautious Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Arch Capital's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Check out Arch Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Arch and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Arch Capital Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
Execute Arch Capital Buy or Sell Advice
The Arch recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Arch Capital Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Arch Capital Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Arch Capital's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Barely shadows the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Arch Capital Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Arch Capital Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Arch Capital Group Stock Sinks As Market Gains What You Should Know |
Arch Capital Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Arch Capital's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Arch Capital's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Arch Capital daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Arch Capital Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Arch Capital returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Arch Capital.
| Mean Return | 0.07 | Value At Risk | -1.42 | Potential Upside | 1.92 | Standard Deviation | 1.14 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Arch Capital historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Arch Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Norges Bank | 2025-06-30 | 4.8 M | Madison Asset Management, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 4.8 M | Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 4.5 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2025-06-30 | 4.3 M | Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc | 2025-06-30 | 4.3 M | Egerton Capital Llp | 2025-06-30 | 4.2 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 4.2 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2025-06-30 | 4.1 M | Nuveen, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 42.4 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 32.9 M |
Arch Capital Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 24.2M | (41M) | 225M | 262M | 301.3M | 316.4M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 3.4B | 3.8B | 5.7B | 6.6B | 7.6B | 8.0B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (891.4M) | 804.7M | (33M) | (673M) | (605.7M) | (575.4M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 41.4M | 51.7M | 52M | 51M | 58.7M | 61.6M | |
| Net Income | 2.2B | 1.5B | 4.4B | 4.3B | 5.0B | 5.2B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 2.1B | |
| Change To Inventory | 695.3M | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.9B | 3.4B | 3.5B | |
| Depreciation | 83.0M | 106.2M | 95M | 235M | 270.3M | 283.8M | |
| Investments | (1.2B) | (3.1B) | (4.9B) | (4.5B) | (4.0B) | (3.8B) | |
| Change Receivables | (237.8M) | (318.6M) | (685.2M) | (1.1B) | (998.3M) | (948.4M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (325.6M) | (821.3M) | (721.7M) | 892.4M | 1.0B | 1.1B |
Arch Capital Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arch Capital or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arch Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arch stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0079 |
Arch Capital Volatility Alert
Arch Capital Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.39 and kurtosis of 1.71. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arch Capital's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arch Capital's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Arch Capital Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Arch Capital's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Arch Capital's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Arch Capital and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Arch Capital or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Arch Capital's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Capital by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Arch Capital to competition |
| Fundamentals | Arch Capital | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.18 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.039 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.21 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.31 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 36.17 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 362.63 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.18 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 93.72 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 6.23 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.15 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.49 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.79 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 16.93 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 6.97 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 4.85 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 4.31 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 2.78 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.77 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.73 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.23 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.91 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 62.58 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 6.67 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.01 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 10.67 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.24 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 107.26 | |
| Number Of Employees | 7.2 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.45 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 35.03 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 70.91 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 22.69 B | 9.33 B |
| Net Asset | 70.91 B |
Note: Disposition of 9494 shares by David Gansberg of Arch Capital at 91.17 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Arch Capital Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arch . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 93.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 93.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.46) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.93) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 26.13 |
Arch Capital Target Price Consensus
Arch target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Arch Capital's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 14 | Strong Buy |
Most Arch analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Arch stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Arch Capital Group, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationArch Capital Target Price Projection
Arch Capital's current and average target prices are 93.51 and 107.26, respectively. The current price of Arch Capital is the price at which Arch Capital Group is currently trading. On the other hand, Arch Capital's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
Arch Capital Market Quote on 6th of January 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Arch Capital Target Price
Arch Capital Analyst Ratings
Arch Capital's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Arch Capital stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Arch Capital's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Arch Capital's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Arch Capital Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Arch Capital Group? Buying financial instruments such as Arch Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Arch Capital in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Arch Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.391 | Earnings Share 10.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.