Arch Capital Group Stock Price Prediction

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 93.91 95.72 108.39 Details

Naive Forecast Low Next High 98.42 100.23 102.05 Details

15 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 83.98 92.29 102.44 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 2.12 2.22 2.37 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arch Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arch Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arch Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arch Capital Group.

Arch Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Arch Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Arch Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Expected Return	Period Volatility	Hype Elasticity	Related Elasticity	News Density	Related Density	Expected Hype
0.07	1.83	0.08	0.01	8 Events / Month	8 Events / Month	In about 8 days

Latest traded price	Expected after-news price	Potential return on next major news	Average after-hype volatility
98.54	98.47	0.07	166.36   Notes

Arch Capital Hype Timeline

Arch Capital Group is presently traded for 98.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Arch is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 98.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 166.36%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Arch Capital is about 1372.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.53. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arch Capital Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.24. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.9. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of November 2024. Arch Capital had 3:1 split on the 21st of June 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Arch Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Arch Capital Related Hype Analysis

Arch Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

The successful prediction of Arch Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arch Capital Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arch Capital based on analysis of Arch Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

The number of cover stories for Arch Capital depends on current market conditions and Arch Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arch Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arch Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Arch Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arch Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arch Capital Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arch Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Check out Arch Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.

Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.