Arch Capital Group Stock Technical Analysis
| ACGL Stock | USD 93.07 0.63 0.67% |
As of the 27th of January, Arch Capital shows the mean deviation of 0.7827, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0807. Arch Capital Group technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm Arch Capital Group information ratio, and the relationship between the downside deviation and value at risk to decide if Arch Capital Group is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 93.07 per share. Given that Arch Capital has jensen alpha of 0.0927, we suggest you to validate Arch Capital Group's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Arch Capital Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Arch, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to ArchArch Capital's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Arch Capital Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Advice | # of Analysts | |
| 107.95 | Strong Buy | 14 | Odds |
Most Arch analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Arch stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Arch Capital Group, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Arch conference calls.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.391 | Earnings Share 10.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Arch Capital 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arch Capital's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arch Capital.
| 10/29/2025 |
| 01/27/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arch Capital on October 29, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arch Capital Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arch Capital over 90 days. Arch Capital is related to or competes with Hartford Financial, Sun Life, Natwest Group, Banco Bradesco, Willis Towers, W R, and KB Financial. Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance product... More
Arch Capital Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arch Capital's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arch Capital Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9625 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0245 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.82 |
Arch Capital Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arch Capital's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arch Capital's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arch Capital historical prices to predict the future Arch Capital's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0807 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0927 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0004) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0251 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.82 |
Arch Capital January 27, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0807 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 2.83 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7827 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8569 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.9625 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 939.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9874 | |||
| Variance | 0.9751 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0245 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0927 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0004) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0251 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.82 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9265 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7342 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.86) | |||
| Skewness | (0.24) | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.2626 |
Arch Capital Group Backtested Returns
As of now, Arch Stock is very steady. Arch Capital Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Arch Capital Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Arch Capital's mean deviation of 0.7827, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0807 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Arch Capital has a performance score of 11 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0337, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Arch Capital's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arch Capital is expected to be smaller as well. Arch Capital Group right now shows a risk of 0.98%. Please confirm Arch Capital Group value at risk, day median price, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and expected short fall , to decide if Arch Capital Group will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.71 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Arch Capital Group has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arch Capital time series from 29th of October 2025 to 13th of December 2025 and 13th of December 2025 to 27th of January 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arch Capital Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Arch Capital price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.11 |
Arch Capital technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Arch Capital Group Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was twenty-four with a total number of output elements of thirty-seven. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of Arch Capital Group volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About Arch Capital Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Arch Capital Group on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arch Capital Group based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Arch Capital Group price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Arch Capital Group. By analyzing Arch Capital's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Arch Capital's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Arch Capital specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001461 | 0.0554 | 0.0524 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.06 | 2.03 | 2.22 |
Arch Capital January 27, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Arch help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arch from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Arch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0807 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 2.83 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7827 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8569 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.9625 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 939.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9874 | |||
| Variance | 0.9751 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0245 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0927 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0004) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0251 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.82 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9265 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7342 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.86) | |||
| Skewness | (0.24) | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.2626 |
Arch Capital January 27, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arch stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.00 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (Huge) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | ||
| Day Median Price | 93.07 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 93.07 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.32) |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Arch Capital Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.391 | Earnings Share 10.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.