Cf Industries Holdings Stock Market Outlook
| CF Stock | USD 94.94 2.30 2.48% |
Roughly 68 percent of all CF Industries' stockholders are curious in acquiring. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading CF Industries Holdings stock suggests that a large number of investors are confidant at this time. The current market sentiment, together with CF Industries' historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use CF Industries Holdings stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 68
Interested
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use CF Industries' input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward CF Industries Holdings.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBullish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding CF Industries Holdings is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides CF Industries buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CF positions.
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Execute CF Industries Advice
The CF Industries recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on CF Industries Holdings. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in CF Industries Holdings or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute CF Industries' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Fair | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon CF Industries Holdings has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0877, Jensen Alpha of 0.1497, Total Risk Alpha of (0.03), Sortino Ratio of 0.0481 and Treynor Ratio of 0.3818Macroaxis provides trade advice on CF Industries Holdings to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on CF Industries. Our advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure CF Industries Holdings is not overpriced, please confirm all CF Industries Holdings fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that CF Industries Holdings has a price to earning of 72.32 X, we suggest you to validate CF Industries market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself this quarter and beyond given your latest risk tolerance and investing horizon.
CF Industries Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ammonium Nitrate Market to Reach Over US 91.96 Billion by 2033 Driven by Expanding Mining Activities, Infrastructure Development, and Rising Demand for ANFO Explosives Astute Analytica |
CF Industries Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of CF Industries' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of CF Industries' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of CF Industries daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use CF Industries Holdings price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of CF Industries returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for CF Industries.
| Mean Return | 0.20 | Value At Risk | -3.57 | Potential Upside | 3.53 | Standard Deviation | 2.01 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of CF Industries historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
CF Industries Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc | 2025-06-30 | 3.1 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2025-06-30 | 2.9 M | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2025-06-30 | 2.9 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 2.6 M | Pacer Advisors, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 2.5 M | Ubs Group Ag | 2025-06-30 | 2.5 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-06-30 | 2.5 M | Qube Research & Technologies | 2025-06-30 | 2.3 M | Earnest Partners Llc | 2025-06-30 | 2.2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 19.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 12.8 M |
CF Industries Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 945M | 695M | (291M) | (418M) | (376.2M) | (357.4M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.3B | 3.4B | 2.3B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 2.1B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 443M | 34M | 53M | (72M) | (82.8M) | (78.7M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 524M | 462M | 501M | 518M | 595.7M | 631.4M | |
| Net Income | 1.3B | 3.9B | 1.5B | 1.5B | 1.7B | 968.8M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.6B | 2.3B | 2.0B | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.1B | |
| Change To Inventory | (123M) | (93M) | 152M | (28M) | (25.2M) | (23.9M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 260M | 306M | (311M) | (364M) | (418.6M) | (397.7M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 76M | 101M | 691M | (52M) | (59.8M) | (56.8M) | |
| Investments | (1M) | (440M) | (403M) | (469M) | (422.1M) | (443.2M) | |
| Change Receivables | (6M) | 19M | (235M) | (110M) | (99M) | (94.1M) |
CF Industries Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to CF Industries or Chemicals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that CF Industries' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a CF Industries stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
CF Industries Volatility Alert
CF Industries Holdings currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.05 and Jensen Alpha of 0.15. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure CF Industries' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact CF Industries' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.CF Industries Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing CF Industries' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze CF Industries' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between CF Industries and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as CF Industries or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of CF Industries' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare CF Industries to competition |
| Fundamentals | CF Industries | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.22 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0955 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.20 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.34 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 16.01 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 155.97 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.73 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 99.27 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 12.88 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 72.32 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.98 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.28 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 5.94 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 2.48 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 2.83 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 1.48 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 932 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 11.89 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 3.25 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.42 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.41 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 30.75 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 2.27 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 5.31 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 8.48 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.59 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 91.21 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.8 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.69 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 15.38 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 13.47 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 4.01 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.7 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 5328 shares by Susan Menzel of CF Industries at 81.02 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
CF Industries Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as CF Industries . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28274.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.935 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 93.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 94.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.14 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.3 |
CF Industries Target Price Consensus
CF Industries target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. CF Industries' target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 21 | Buy |
Most CF Industries analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand CF Industries stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of CF Industries Holdings, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationCF Industries Target Price Projection
CF Industries' current and average target prices are 94.94 and 91.21, respectively. The current price of CF Industries is the price at which CF Industries Holdings is currently trading. On the other hand, CF Industries' target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
CF Industries Market Quote on 10th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On CF Industries Target Price
CF Industries Analyst Ratings
CF Industries' analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about CF Industries stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of CF Industries' financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. CF Industries' historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About CF Industries Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell CF Industries Holdings? Buying financial instruments such as CF Industries Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out CF Industries Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Can Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals industry sustain growth momentum? Does CF Industries have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. Projected growth potential of CF Industries fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating CF Industries demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.416 | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 8.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.211 |
Investors evaluate CF Industries Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating CF Industries' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause CF Industries' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between CF Industries' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CF Industries should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, CF Industries' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.