Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock Market Outlook
| MPC Stock | USD 203.22 0.04 0.02% |
About 55% of Marathon Petroleum's investor base is interested to short. The current sentiment regarding investing in Marathon Petroleum Corp stock implies that many traders are impartial. The current market sentiment, together with Marathon Petroleum's historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use Marathon Petroleum Corp stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 45
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Marathon Petroleum's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Marathon Petroleum Corp.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Marathon Petroleum Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Marathon Petroleum buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding MPC positions.
Execute Marathon Petroleum Advice
The Marathon recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Marathon Petroleum Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Marathon Petroleum Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Marathon Petroleum's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Marathon Petroleum Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0375, Jensen Alpha of 0.034, Total Risk Alpha of (0.08), Sortino Ratio of 0.0061 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1141Macroaxis provides trade recommendations on Marathon Petroleum Corp to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Marathon Petroleum. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Marathon Petroleum Corp is not overpriced, please verify all Marathon Petroleum Corp fundamentals, including its price to sales, debt to equity, number of employees, as well as the relationship between the net income and short ratio . Given that Marathon Petroleum Corp has a price to earning of 5.62 X, we recommend you to check Marathon Petroleum market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Marathon Petroleum Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Marathon Petroleum has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy |
Marathon Petroleum Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Marathon Petroleum's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Marathon Petroleum daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Marathon Petroleum Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Marathon Petroleum returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Marathon Petroleum.
| Mean Return | 0.08 | Value At Risk | -3.66 | Potential Upside | 3.66 | Standard Deviation | 2.11 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Marathon Petroleum historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Marathon Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2025-06-30 | 3.4 M | Fmr Inc | 2025-06-30 | 3.4 M | T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 3.3 M | Norges Bank | 2025-06-30 | 3.2 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 3.1 M | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2025-06-30 | 2.8 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 2.7 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2025-06-30 | 2.6 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-06-30 | 2.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 38.9 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 23.4 M |
Marathon Petroleum Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (33M) | (787M) | (489M) | (270M) | (310.5M) | (295.0M) | |
| Change In Cash | 4.7B | 3.3B | (3.2B) | (2.2B) | (2.0B) | (1.9B) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.9B | 13.9B | 12.2B | 6.1B | 7.1B | 3.7B | |
| Depreciation | 3.4B | 3.2B | 3.3B | 3.3B | 3.8B | 2.2B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (5.4B) | 1.8B | (629M) | (14M) | (16.1M) | (15.3M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 1.5B | 2.4B | 1.9B | 2.5B | 2.9B | 2.5B | |
| Net Income | 9.7B | 14.5B | 11.2B | 5.1B | 5.8B | 3.7B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 5.3B | 8.6B | 5.4B | 3.2B | 3.7B | 2.8B | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.5B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.1B | |
| Investments | (5.7B) | 2.5B | (2.6B) | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.4B | |
| Change Receivables | (2.0B) | 1.5B | (5.3B) | (2.3B) | (2.1B) | (2.0B) | |
| Net Borrowings | (6.3B) | 1.1B | 510M | (353M) | (317.7M) | (301.8M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 2.5B | 11.1B | (8.6B) | (1.4B) | (1.3B) | (1.2B) |
Marathon Petroleum Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Marathon Petroleum or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Marathon Petroleum's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Marathon stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Marathon Petroleum Volatility Alert
Marathon Petroleum Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.34 and kurtosis of 1.24. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Marathon Petroleum's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Marathon Petroleum's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Marathon Petroleum Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Marathon Petroleum's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Marathon Petroleum's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Marathon Petroleum and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Marathon Petroleum or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Marathon Petroleum's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Marathon Petroleum to competition |
| Fundamentals | Marathon Petroleum | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.24 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0387 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.07 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 91.51 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 295 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.28 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 77.10 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 8.93 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 5.62 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.51 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.46 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 132.54 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 13.98 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 11.54 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 5.07 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 3.21 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 23.76 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 28.76 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.82 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.65 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 56.80 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 8.66 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.09 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 13.21 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.14 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 199.56 | |
| Number Of Employees | 18.3 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.71 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 61.1 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 78.86 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 36.85 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 3.62 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 10879 shares by Molly Benson of Marathon Petroleum at 163.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Marathon Petroleum Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Marathon . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Marathon Petroleum Target Price Consensus
Marathon target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Marathon Petroleum's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 20 | Buy |
Most Marathon analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Marathon stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Marathon Petroleum Corp, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationMarathon Petroleum Target Price Projection
Marathon Petroleum's current and average target prices are 203.22 and 199.56, respectively. The current price of Marathon Petroleum is the price at which Marathon Petroleum Corp is currently trading. On the other hand, Marathon Petroleum's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
Marathon Petroleum Market Quote on 16th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Marathon Petroleum Target Price
Marathon Petroleum Analyst Ratings
Marathon Petroleum's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Marathon Petroleum stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Marathon Petroleum's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Marathon Petroleum's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Marathon Petroleum Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Marathon Petroleum Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Marathon Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
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Check out Marathon Petroleum Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Will Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector continue expanding? Could Marathon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Petroleum. Expected growth trajectory for Marathon significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Marathon Petroleum data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.51 | Dividend Share 3.82 | Earnings Share 13.21 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Marathon Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Petroleum's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Marathon Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Marathon Petroleum's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Marathon Petroleum represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.