Rivian Automotive Stock Market Outlook
| RIVN Stock | USD 14.22 0.04 0.28% |
Earnings surprises, macro shifts, and narrative changes can each leave a measurable footprint in the score, which is why sentiment is treated as context rather than proof on its own. About 53% of recent sentiment around Rivian Automotive has been mildly constructive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for Rivian Automotive close to neutral at this time.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
53 · Impartial
Maximum Pain Price Across 2026-06-18 Option Contracts
Rivian Automotive max pain for the 2026-06-18 contracts is 14.00. Open interest around that strike level helps frame how options positioning may interact with price. The balanced open interest profile in Rivian Automotive - calls at 39.8 K contracts at the 25.00 strike, puts at 32.7 K contracts at the 15.00 strike - adds a positioning layer to the volatility picture.
Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment
Rivian Automotive news coverage registers moderately positive at 67%, a data point that gauges whether public narrative is leading or lagging the business reality. That reading becomes more actionable when paired with valuation context and recent technical trend direction.
Given a 90-day horizon, with an above-average risk tolerance, the model output for Rivian Automotive is 'Sell'. The buy or sell signal for Rivian Automotive is generated by an algorithmic model applied to available data. The analysis is updated continuously as new market data for Rivian Automotive becomes available.
Rivian |
Run Rivian Automotive Outlook Model
This Rivian module delivers a quantitative summary that supplements analyst views on Rivian Automotive. Macroaxis has no ownership or residual interests in Rivian Automotive or other analyzed instruments.
How This Model Works
The recommendation output for Rivian Automotive is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.
- Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
- Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an educated risk taker
- Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates
Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Sell
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Stable | Details | |
Current Valuation | Below Model Estimate | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Rivian Automotive's current outlook reflects a cautious setup, where negative margins limit earnings-based valuation support. The model's 'Sell' signal reflects persistent headwinds that outweigh the offsetting factors in the model. For the selected horizon, Rivian Automotive yields Mean Deviation of 3.02, Semi Deviation of 3.69, and Standard Deviation of 4.66, which weigh on the current risk-reward outlook.The Rivian Automotive quantitative signal draws on volatility, valuation, and earnings quality to produce a risk-aware signal that can be read alongside the expert consensus. For additional context on this large-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, analyze the full set of Rivian Automotive reported fundamentals, including book value per share ttm, and the relationship between the cash and equivalents ttm and target price. Rivian Automotive reports a number of shares shorted of 143.47 M. Its market performance and financial distress probability provide additional context.
Recent Events and Market Context
The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Rivian Automotive. Not all items directly affect the outlook โ they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.
Returns Distribution Density
This distribution maps every daily return Rivian Automotive has posted. Most days cluster near the average return, and the further from the mean, the rarer those moves become.
| Mean Return | 0.08 | Value At Risk | -7.11 | Potential Upside | 4.22 | Standard Deviation | 4.66 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Understanding Rivian Automotive's risk starts with seeing how often large price swings happen. The historical return chart puts hard numbers on that question.
Top Institutional Investors
Rivian Automotive's institutional and insider mix shapes how the stock trades around earnings. Annual revenue is about 5.39 billion. The business currently sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Automobiles & Components industry. With moderate institutional presence, retail activity has more room to move the price day to day.
| Shares | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2025-12-31 | 13.2 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2025-12-31 | 12.2 M | Norges Bank | 2025-12-31 | 11.2 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-12-31 | 10.4 M | Citigroup Inc | 2025-12-31 | 9.9 M | Elco Management Co., Llc | 2025-12-31 | 8.2 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2025-12-31 | 7.4 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2025-12-31 | 7.4 M | Amundi | 2025-12-31 | 5.9 M | Amazon.com Inc | 2025-12-31 | 158.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-12-31 | 81.4 M |
Cash Flow Accounts
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | -1.7B | -1.6B | 307M | 522M | 548.1M | |
| Net Borrowings | 3.6B | -3M | 3.2B | 1B | 0.0 | |
| Change To Operating Activities | -21M | 12M | 169M | 194.4M | 204.1M | |
| Change To Netincome | 38M | 1.8B | 2.0B | 2.3B | 2.4B | |
| Change To Liabilities | 121M | 461M | 623M | 716.5M | 752.3M |
Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure
The aggregate risk of Rivian Automotive includes stock market sensitivity and asset-level influences. Diversification addresses specific risk but not systemic exposure. Rivian Automotive posted a Downside Deviation of 3.76, a Mean Deviation of 3.02, and an Option Implied Volatility of 1.14 for the reported period.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Fundamentals Vs Peers
Rivian Automotive's valuation multiples, profitability ratios, and leverage metrics are benchmarked below against comparable stocks. When Rivian Automotive outperforms peers on profitability or returns while trading at a discount, the gap warrants investigation.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Rivian Automotive to competition |
Note: Disposition of 16812 shares by Marcario Rose M of Rivian Automotive subject to Rule 16 b-3 [view details]
Market Momentum
With RSI at 44 and beta at 1.8784, Rivian Automotive strength signals show whether demand and trading pressure are supporting or weakening the current setup. Comparing these readings with sector peers helps separate stock-specific momentum from amplified market moves.
Current Target Price Consensus
We determine Rivian's target price by averaging all analyst estimates into a single consensus value. No single metric captures analyst accuracy; sophisticated attribution analysis remains the primary evaluation method.
| 29 | Buy |
Rating updates for Rivian typically occur on a quarterly cycle. The target price supports comparison of the stock's current trading level to what analysts believe Rivian Automotive is worth.
Exposure ValuationRivian Automotive Target Price Projection
Investors tracking Rivian Automotive will note a current price of 14.22 and an average analyst target of 18.12. The market price tells investors what Rivian Automotive trades for right now; the target indicates what analysts believe the stock is worth.Current Price
Rivian Automotive Market Quote on 9th of May 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Rivian Automotive Target Price
Rivian Automotive Analyst Ratings
Analyst coverage on Rivian Automotive spans 29 analysts with a Buy consensus. 10 lean positive while 3 lean negative on Rivian Automotive's stock.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight
The model output for Rivian Automotive reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Rivian Automotive include ROE of -65.69%, market cap of 19.1 billion. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Buy across 29 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised. 
Rivian Automotive metrics are compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized before display. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.
Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Ellen covers public companies in North America, focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.