Toast Inc Stock Market Outlook
| TOST Stock | USD 27.33 1.19 4.55% |
Slightly above 70 percent of all Toast's private investors are curious in acquiring. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading Toast Inc stock suggests that a large number of investors are confidant at this time. Toast's investing sentiment can be driven by a variety of factors including economic data, Toast's earnings reports, geopolitical events, and overall market trends.
Comfort Level 70
Interested
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Toast's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Toast Inc.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBullish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Toast Inc is 'Strong Buy'. A buy or sell recommendation is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Toast Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance. When we issue a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Toast Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Execute Toast Advice
The Toast recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Toast Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Toast Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Toast's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Weakest | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Toast Inc has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12), Jensen Alpha of (0.57), Total Risk Alpha of (0.69) and Treynor Ratio of (0.28)Our trade recommendation module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Toast Inc. It analyzes the company potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Toast Inc is not overpriced, please validate all Toast fundamentals, including its number of shares shorted, book value per share, net asset, as well as the relationship between the net income and number of employees . Given that Toast Inc has a number of shares shorted of 28.92 M, we advise you to double-check Toast Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Toast Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Toast Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Toast Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Toast Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Toasts Q4 CY2025 Sales Beat Estimates But Stock Drops |
Toast Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Toast's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Toast's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Toast daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Toast Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Toast returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Toast.
| Mean Return | -0.46 | Value At Risk | -4.92 | Potential Upside | 3.96 | Standard Deviation | 2.85 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Toast historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Toast Stock Institutional Investors
The Toast's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Toast's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 7.9 M | Marshall Wace Asset Management Ltd | 2025-06-30 | 7.9 M | Qube Research & Technologies | 2025-06-30 | 6.7 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-06-30 | 6.3 M | Ubs Group Ag | 2025-06-30 | 6.1 M | Principal Financial Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 5.8 M | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 5.5 M | Xn Lp | 2025-06-30 | 5.2 M | Norges Bank | 2025-06-30 | 5 M | Capital Research & Mgmt Co - Division 3 | 2025-06-30 | 45.1 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 44.4 M |
Toast Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (3.9M) | (23M) | (68M) | 0.0 | 4M | 4.2M | |
| Investments | (459M) | (98M) | (158M) | (39M) | (44.9M) | (47.1M) | |
| Change In Cash | 257M | (216M) | 112M | 338M | 450M | 229.2M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (17M) | (189M) | 93M | 306M | 608M | 638.4M | |
| Depreciation | 21M | 24M | 32M | 46M | 67M | 35.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 301M | (9M) | 121M | 185M | 201M | 129.4M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 19M | 33M | 42M | 54M | 53M | 39.6M | |
| Net Income | (487M) | (275M) | (246M) | 19M | 342M | 359.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 851M | 635M | 747M | 1.1B | 1.4B | 852.3M |
Toast Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Toast or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Toast's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Toast stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Toast Volatility Alert
Toast Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.64 and kurtosis of 1.12. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Toast's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Toast's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Toast Implied Volatility
Toast's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toast Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toast's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toast stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toast's options are near their expiration.
Toast Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Toast's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Toast's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Toast and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Toast or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Toast's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toast by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Toast to competition |
| Fundamentals | Toast | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.19 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0687 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.06 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 14.13 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 523 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 7.49 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 85.65 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 28.92 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Book | 7.58 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.62 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 6.15 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.6 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 372 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 342 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.18 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.28 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 40 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.08 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.25 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 3.61 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 661 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.28 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.56 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.25 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 38.58 | |
| Number Of Employees | 5.7 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.93 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 16.1 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 3.15 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.26 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.16 B | 1.48 B |
| Net Asset | 3.15 B |
Note: Disposition of 2935 shares by Jonathan Vassil of Toast subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Toast Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Toast . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Toast Target Price Consensus
Toast target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Toast's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 32 | Buy |
Most Toast analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Toast stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Toast Inc, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationToast Target Price Projection
Toast's current and average target prices are 27.33 and 38.58, respectively. The current price of Toast is the price at which Toast Inc is currently trading. On the other hand, Toast's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Toast Target Price
Toast Analyst Ratings
Toast's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Toast stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Toast's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Toast's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Toast Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Toast Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Toast Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Toast in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Services Thematic Idea Now
Services
Companies involved in delivering services to business or consumers across different industries and sectors. The Services theme has 30 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Services Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
| View All Next | Launch |
Additional Tools for Toast Stock Analysis
When running Toast's price analysis, check to measure Toast's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toast is operating at the current time. Most of Toast's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toast's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toast's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toast to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.