Turning Point Brands Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| TPB Stock | USD 63.00 3.14 5.25% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Turning Point Brands is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Turning Point buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding TPB positions.
Check out Turning Point Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Turning and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Turning Point Brands. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
Turning |
Execute Turning Point Buy or Sell Advice
The Turning recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Turning Point Brands. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Turning Point Brands or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Turning Point's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Barely shadows the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Turning Point Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Turning Point Brands Upgraded by StockNews.com to Buy Rating - MarketBeat |
Turning Point Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Turning Point's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Turning Point's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Turning Point daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Turning Point Brands price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Turning Point returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Turning Point.
| Mean Return | 0.47 | Value At Risk | -2.46 | Potential Upside | 4.38 | Standard Deviation | 2.16 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Turning Point historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Turning Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Lord, Abbett & Co Llc | 2024-09-30 | 244.5 K | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2024-09-30 | 241 K | Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership | 2024-09-30 | 234 K | Foundry Partners, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 191.3 K | Park West Asset Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 189 K | Harspring Capital Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 181.5 K | First Sabrepoint Capital Management Lp | 2024-09-30 | 174.2 K | Aristides Capital Llc | 2024-09-30 | 168.6 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 160.6 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-09-30 | 1.6 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 1.5 M |
Turning Point Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (7.7M) | (9K) | (32.7M) | 21.0M | 18.9M | 19.8M | |
| Change In Cash | (50.5M) | 66.6M | (32.1M) | 11.5M | 13.2M | 7.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 37.5M | 62.1M | 22.6M | 61.2M | 70.4M | 73.9M | |
| Depreciation | 5.0M | 5.0M | 5.3M | 6.4M | 7.3M | 7.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 10.8M | 7.0M | 42.7M | (2.9M) | (2.6M) | (2.5M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 3.8M | 4.1M | 4.3M | (4.5M) | (4.0M) | (3.8M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 6.1M | 6.2M | 7.7M | 5.7M | 6.6M | 4.0M | |
| Net Income | 33.0M | 51.3M | 11.2M | 38.5M | 44.2M | 46.4M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 76.8M | 143.5M | 111.3M | 117.9M | 135.6M | 142.3M | |
| Investments | (19.3M) | (16.7M) | (18.8M) | (5.4M) | (4.9M) | (5.1M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 70.9M | (12.9M) | 110.4M | (9M) | (10.4M) | (9.8M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (1.3M) | 5.5M | 9.7M | 39.0M | 44.8M | 47.0M | |
| Change Receivables | (3.5M) | (2.1M) | 3.3M | (2.1M) | (1.9M) | (1.8M) |
Turning Point Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Turning Point or Tobacco sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Turning Point's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Turning stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Turning Point Volatility Alert
Turning Point Brands currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.18 and Jensen Alpha of 0.45. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Turning Point's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Turning Point's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Turning Point Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Turning Point's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Turning Point's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Turning Point and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Turning Point or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Turning Point's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Turning Point by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Turning Point to competition |
| Fundamentals | Turning Point | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.29 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.12 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.21 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.29 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 17.72 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.55 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 82.62 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 428.45 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.68 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 5.74 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.59 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 405.39 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 209.98 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 82.69 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 38.46 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 107.43 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 6.02 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 377.99 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 3.36 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 5.28 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 10.48 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 66.88 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.18 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.49 X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 68.75 | |
| Number Of Employees | 373 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.63 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.06 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 569.36 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 112.44 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 167.28 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 63.95 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Disposition of 2542 shares by David Glazek of Turning Point at 60.1 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Turning Point Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Turning . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15394.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8285 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 61.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 62.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.82 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.14 |
About Turning Point Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Turning Point Brands? Buying financial instruments such as Turning Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
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Check out Turning Point Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Tobacco space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Turning Point. If investors know Turning will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Turning Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.178 | Dividend Share 0.275 | Earnings Share 2.49 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Turning Point Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Turning that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Turning Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Turning Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Turning Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Turning Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Turning Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Turning Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Turning Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.