Correlation Between Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty

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Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.
By analyzing existing cross correlation between Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty Bancshares, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Commerce Bancshares with a short position of First Guaranty. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty.

Diversification Opportunities for Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty

0.58
  Correlation Coefficient

Very weak diversification

The 3 months correlation between Commerce and First is 0.58. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty Bancshares in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on First Guaranty Bancshares and Commerce Bancshares is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Commerce Bancshares are associated (or correlated) with First Guaranty. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of First Guaranty Bancshares has no effect on the direction of Commerce Bancshares i.e., Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commerce Bancshares is expected to generate 0.63 times more return on investment than First Guaranty. However, Commerce Bancshares is 1.59 times less risky than First Guaranty. It trades about 0.09 of its potential returns per unit of risk. First Guaranty Bancshares is currently generating about 0.0 per unit of risk. If you would invest  4,898  in Commerce Bancshares on November 9, 2024 and sell it today you would earn a total of  1,961  from holding Commerce Bancshares or generate 40.04% return on investment over 90 days.
Time Period3 Months [change]
DirectionMoves Together 
StrengthWeak
Accuracy100.0%
ValuesDaily Returns

Commerce Bancshares  vs.  First Guaranty Bancshares

 Performance 
       Timeline  
Commerce Bancshares 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Insignificant

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Commerce Bancshares are ranked lower than 1 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly strong basic indicators, Commerce Bancshares is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price confusion, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the traders.
First Guaranty Bancshares 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Very Weak

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days First Guaranty Bancshares has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite fairly strong fundamental drivers, First Guaranty is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price confusion, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the traders.

Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty Volatility Contrast

   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  

Pair Trading with Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty

The main advantage of trading using opposite Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Commerce Bancshares position performs unexpectedly, First Guaranty can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Guaranty will offset losses from the drop in First Guaranty's long position.
The idea behind Commerce Bancshares and First Guaranty Bancshares pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.
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Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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