Commercial National Financial Stock Performance

CEFC Stock  USD 14.00  0.33  2.41%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Commercial National holds a performance score of 17. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.29, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Commercial National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Commercial National is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Commercial National's variance, maximum drawdown, semi variance, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Commercial National's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Solid

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Commercial National Financial are ranked lower than 17 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather weak technical and fundamental indicators, Commercial National exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
  

Commercial National Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,235  in Commercial National Financial on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  165.00  from holding Commercial National Financial or generate 13.36% return on investment over 90 days. Commercial National Financial is currently generating 0.2136% in daily expected returns and assumes 0.954% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 8% of pink sheets are less volatile than Commercial, and 96% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commercial National is expected to generate 1.26 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.26 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.22 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Commercial National Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Commercial Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.00 90 days 14.00 
about 10.1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commercial National to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.1 (This Commercial National Financial probability density function shows the probability of Commercial Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commercial National has a beta of 0.29 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Commercial National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Commercial National Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Commercial National Financial has an alpha of 0.2297, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Commercial National Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Commercial National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.0514.0014.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.6113.5514.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.1214.0815.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.5313.7914.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commercial National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commercial National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commercial National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Commercial National.

Commercial National Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commercial National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commercial National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commercial National Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commercial National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.23
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.29
σ
Overall volatility
0.58
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

Commercial National Fundamentals Growth

Commercial Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Commercial National, and Commercial National fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Commercial Pink Sheet performance.

About Commercial National Performance

By analyzing Commercial National's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Commercial National's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Commercial National has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Commercial National has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Commercial National Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Commercial Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, agricultural businesses, commercial businesses, and light industries in Michigan. The company was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Ithaca, Michigan. Commercial Natl operates under BanksRegional classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange.

Things to note about Commercial National performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Commercial National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for Commercial National help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Evaluating Commercial National's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Commercial National's pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing Commercial National's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Commercial National's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Commercial National's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Commercial National's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Commercial National's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Commercial National's pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into Commercial National's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Commercial National's pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Commercial National's pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Commercial Pink Sheet analysis

When running Commercial National's price analysis, check to measure Commercial National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial National is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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