Geo Group Stock Performance
| GEO Stock | USD 14.58 0.37 2.60% |
The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.32, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Geo will likely underperform. Geo Group right now retains a risk of 3.14%. Please check out Geo downside variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis , to decide if Geo will be following its current trending patterns.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days Geo Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of very healthy technical and fundamental indicators, Geo is not utilizing all of its potentials. The recent stock price disarray, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 2.6 | Five Day Return (0.21) | Year To Date Return (8.47) | Ten Year Return (24.33) | All Time Return 1.4 K |
Last Split Factor 3:2 | Dividend Date 2021-02-01 | Ex Dividend Date 2021-01-22 | Last Split Date 2017-04-25 |
1 | Acquisition by J Donahue of 37500 shares of Geo subject to Rule 16b-3 | 11/28/2025 |
2 | The GEO Group, Inc. A Bull Case Theory - Insider Monkey | 12/08/2025 |
3 | A Look At GEO Group Valuation After New ICE Contract For Big Horn Facility - simplywall.st | 01/15/2026 |
4 | Lawsuit alleges inhumane conditions at Adelanto ICE facility | 01/26/2026 |
5 | Stacker and Scrunch Partner to Bring AI Search Visibility to Earned Media at Scale | 01/29/2026 |
6 | Acquisition by Christopher Ryan of 10000 shares of Geo subject to Rule 16b-3 | 02/02/2026 |
7 | What Does GEO Groups Larger Credit Line Reveal About Its Liquidity Strategy | 02/03/2026 |
8 | Maximus Q1 Earnings Top Estimates | 02/05/2026 |
9 | GEO Group Q4 Earnings Report Preview What To Look For | 02/11/2026 |
10 | Record Contracts, Rising Earnings And New CEO Could Be A Game Changer For GEO Group | 02/12/2026 |
11 | The GEO Group Inc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue Growth and Strategic ... | 02/13/2026 |
Geo Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 1,487 in Geo Group on November 20, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (29.00) from holding Geo Group or give up 1.95% of portfolio value over 90 days. Geo Group is generating 0.0173% of daily returns assuming volatility of 3.1353% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 28% of stocks are less volatile than Geo, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Geo Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Geo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 14.58 | 90 days | 14.58 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Geo to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Geo Group probability density function shows the probability of Geo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Geo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Geo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Geo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Geo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Geo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Geo Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Geo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Geo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Geo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Geo Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Geo Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: The GEO Group Inc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue Growth and Strategic ... |
Geo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Geo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Geo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69 M |
Geo Fundamentals Growth
Geo Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Geo, and Geo fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Geo Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.18 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0493 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.1 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.12 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 3.63 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 139.2 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 11.19 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.31 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.78 X | ||||
| Revenue | 2.63 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 663.07 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 425.63 M | ||||
| Net Income | 254.37 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 76.9 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 4.88 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1.73 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 2.79 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 2.63 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 10.94 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 242.24 M | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 1.87 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 2.06 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 3.84 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 39.88 M | ||||
| Working Capital | 159.96 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 438.35 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 278.62 M | ||||
About Geo Performance
By examining Geo's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Geo's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Geo is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 11.11 | 8.22 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | 0.09 | 0.06 | |
| Return On Capital Employed | 0.07 | 0.11 | |
| Return On Assets | 0.07 | 0.05 | |
| Return On Equity | 0.17 | 0.14 |
Things to note about Geo Group performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Geo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Geo Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Geo Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: The GEO Group Inc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue Growth and Strategic ... |
- Analyzing Geo's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Geo's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Geo's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Geo's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Geo's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Geo's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Geo's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Geo Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in discontinued. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Will Commercial Services & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Geo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. Market participants price Geo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Geo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.091 | Earnings Share 1.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.165 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Geo Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Geo's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Geo's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Geo's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.